Project Portfolio Risk Assessment And Response Strategy Selection From The Life Cycle Perspective

As the global economy grows rapidly and companies expand rapidly,organizations are breaking away from the traditional single project management model and diversifying into multiple projects in parallel.Project portfolio,as one of the key models of multi-project management,carries the organization’s strategic objectives and enables it to maintain its management flexibility and competitive advantage.However,in the process of implementing a project portfolio,there are portfolio-level risks in addition to project risks.Because of the large number of components within the project portfolio,significant correlations between projects in terms of resources,technologies,benefits,etc.In addition,project portfolio risks are interdependent and dynamic,with the probability of occurrence changing dynamically over the life cycle,making it difficult for the organization to achieve its strategic objectives.Therefore,how to effectively manage project portfolio risks is a pressing issue for organizations.This study conducts research on project portfolio risk assessment and response strategy selection,based on the perspective of project portfolio life cycle,with project portfolio risk as the research object,considering the dependency relationship between projects and risks.It provides a basis for effective control of project portfolio risks.First,from the perspective of project interdependence,the literature review method is applied to identify project portfolio risks and construct a project portfolio risk evaluation index system.Second,considering the causal relationship between risks at the same stage and the time dependence of different stages,a dynamic assessment model of project portfolio risk is established by combining fuzzy set theory,expert assessment method,integral value method,and dynamic Bayesian network.Third,an optimization model is applied to construct the risk response strategy selection model by analyzing the risk propagation path of the project portfolio and considering the direct and indirect impact of risk response strategies on risk throughout the life cycle.This study maximizes the risk response effect under the constraints of meeting limited resources and expected losses.Finally,the dynamic assessment of the project portfolio risk is carried out through the analysis of arithmetic cases,and the critical risks and the dynamic change characteristics of the risk probability are identified based on the results.On this basis,the risk response strategies to be implemented at each stage are selected to achieve the optimal risk response and to verify the effectiveness of the above model.This study constructs a portfolio risk dynamic assessment model and a risk response strategy selection model from the perspective of the project portfolio life cycle,taking into account the interaction between projects.The dynamic assessment of project portfolio risk can assess the probability of occurrence of risk factors at each stage more scientifically and objectively,and further grasp the fluctuation trend of project portfolio risk probability,and the project portfolio risk response can help managers clarify the characteristics of risk response throughout the life cycle,to select the set of risk response strategies consistent with the risk response budget.