Financial Crisis Prediction Research On Listed Company Integrating Equity Structure

With the gradual advancement of global economic integration and the fast development of the capital market, the complexity and uncertainty in economic field becomes increasingly evident,and the quality of the companies sink into the financial distress is mounting up. Any financial crisis is a process which appears gradually and worsens unceasingly. How to warn early the crisis, eliminate the crisis in the embryonic stage, make enterprise develop continuously and healthy, this not only is the key point which the listed company pays attention to, also become urgent need for various benefit counterparts. Therefore, it is necessary to establish the financial crisis prediction model which can forecast effectively financial condition of the enterprise and guard against the appearance of the financial crisis.The purpose of this paper is to find early-warning indicators that can remarkably distinguish between the financial crisis company and the non-financial crisis company through analyzing financial indicators and equity structure indicators of the listed company,establish early-warning model on financial crisis that is suitable for the listed companies of our country, provide the making-policy basis and the advice for related respects. The traditional financial early-warning research lays emphasis on the financial variable research, but ignore non-financial variable which is difficult to quantify. The article integrates equity structure, the company achievements and financial crisis. The equity structure variables are used to establish financial distress model, in some sense it supply references to the perfection of the research of the financial distress prediction in our country.With the reference of domestic and international scholar's studies, this article regards the listed company which is treated specially due to unusual financial condition in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market as the research object, selects the training samples which are composed of 73 financial crisis companies and 73 normal companies, chooses 30 financial indexes and 7 equity structure indexes. In virtue of statistic software of SPSS 12.0, firstly, this article makes use of paired samples T-test to discover the significant financial variables. Secondly, the article carries on the factor analysis by virtue of the remarkable financial variables and the equity structure variables, sets up logistic model based on the host factor and representative indexes. Finally, the article tests the effect of logistic model by virtue of 27 financial crisis companies and 27 normal companies as test samples.The empirical research demonstrates, equity structure variable has a remarkable effect one year before the financial crisis occurs, and it shows the forward early-warning ability of equity structure variable is not remarkable. Whether host factor model or representative index model has a good the return rate of accuracy and the predictive rate of accuracy, the latter is more perfect than former. The models of the article get good predictive effect and have certain application value according to the research effect.Undoubtedly, the artic has some insufficiencies. For example, the selection of samples ignores the professional and regional difference; the selection of prediction variables ignores other non-finance variables besides the equity structure; the research technique still was a static research etc. These shortages also point the direction of perfection on financial crisis prediction research in future.