Listed Companies In China Manufacturing Enterprises In Financial Crisis Early Warning Empirical Research

The thesis uses positive analysis method. "ST" public companies are defined financial distress enterprises. 33 "ST" public companies during 2006 are selected for distress enterprises sample and 33 non-distressed companies are selected for partnership sample .I do positive analysis on the base of the 1-3 years' data before distress.I established two finance index systems ,one based on accrual basis is consisted of 29 finance indexes and the other based on cash basis is consisted of 16 finance indexes ,T test show that nine indexes are prominence ,they are Return on Assets ,Total Assets Increasing Rate, Current Debt Ratio, Long Term Debt Ratio ,Working Capital Assets Ratio , Receivables Turnover , Current Assets Turnover from balance sheet and income statement, current liability cash ratio, liability cash ratio. Then I using liner regression to wipe off indexes, fix the final indexes by which I establish logistic models and multiple liner discriminate models. The are developed by three, and four finance indexes respectively and also developed for discriminating and predicting up to three years prior to the distress event. I found one is the outcome almost similar, the other is cash index can increase the predicting ability at early years but not increase the predicting ability near the finance distress year.Generally, this paper can be helpful for the investor to find the better objective for further investment based on the scientific model and also be guidance and reference for the companies in financial distress to find out the solutions to some extent.