The Introduction Of The Shareholding Structure Of Indicators Of Financial Crisis Early Warning Model Study

At present the competition in the market is tenser and tenser and the business environment is in constant unpredictable vicissitude. With the deepening of the economic system reform, the complication and uncertainty of the business becomes more and more serious and more and more enterprises are mired in financial crisis. Thus, every enterprise should consider how to improve its business situation and avoid the financial crisis. How to establish financial precautionary model and predict the financial conditions so as to head off the financial crisis is worth study.This paper is on the perspective of the enterprise share structure; because the share structure is the basis of the property right and corporate governance structure and necessarily has an impact on the happening of the financial crisis. This paper puts the share structure index into the prediction system of the financial crisis. Absorb the previous study result and adopt the empirical analysis to conduct prediction study about the financial crisis of listed Chinese enterprises. This is of referential value to perfect the study of the precautionary system of financial crisis in the Chinese enterprises.This paper selects 98 ST companies of 2006, 2007, and 2008 as the company samples of financial crisis. Another 98 non-ST companies are as company samples of normal financial conditions. 7 share structure indices and 22 financial indices are as primary independent variables. Use Logistic regression analysis, one of the statistic analysis methods, to select 8 independent variables in to the precautionary system. At last use the discriminant analysis of Fisher to conduct prediction analysis of the financial crisis of the listed companies.The result suggests that, firstly, the prediction capability of the model established by using the share structure indices is high, so when establishing precautionary model of financial crisis, it necessary to consider the share structure index to enhance its precautionary capability; secondly, the runner of companies should reasonably adjust the share structure of the company, which is beneficial to run the company continuously and normally and avoid the financial crisis.