Empirical Research, Based On The Logistic Model Of The Listed Companies' Financial Crisis Forecast

In this competitive market, every company will encounter the financial difficulties, if the operator can't solve these problems in time, it will result in the bankruptcy. Although we can't avoid every company from the financial distress, but the company fall into the financial distress is a process, from the common to the worse, result in bankruptcy at last. From this regulation, the auspices of the financial distress can be forecasted, the related research in home and abroad prove this. The forecast of the financial distress is an important part of the manager's daily work. If the problems in the company accumulate together, the manager will lose the ability to solve it and result into the bankruptcy. The empirical studies in financial distress predict is to find the regulation from the mass samples. Design the predictive model to forecast whether the company will fall into the financial distress, it different from the analysis upon the experience.There are five parts in this thesis:In part one: first introduce the background and the meaning of the study, review the actuality and representative of the study in financial distress, meanwhile explain the reason that why choose the logistic model, also introduce the content and frame in the study.In part two: introduce the theory of the financial distress predict and related conception.In part three: introduce how the sample and the companies are designed and chosen, and explain the hypothesis, principle and method of the choice, include choosing the financial indexes and company governance indexes.In part four: introduce the process and analysis of the empirical studies, through the K-S test, T test and Mann-Whitney U test wipe off the indexes which is not remarkable, then through the pertinence analysis and factor analysis to choose the financial forecasting indexes, establish logistic model at last.In part five: illuminate the conclusion and localization of the study.The new points in this paper Are tow sides considerations, one side can forecast the financial distresses, the other can find out the company with good financial status. And carry the enough checkouts in the model design; fill the limitation in the former research.