Research On Listed Company Financial Failure

The listed company serious finance question, has caused the very largest for each correlation benefit side, each benefit side is urgent needs to establish to be able to send out the financial failure warning sign the financial failure to analyze the system, therefore goes on the market the corporate finance failure to forecast into the research topic which widely pays attention to. Along with the correlation theory development and the research technique improvement, this research unceasingly obtains the promotion, but other benefit sides impelled academic circles research step. Goes on the market the corporate finance failure forecast, it not only has a higher academic value, moreover has the huge society application value. At present the gradually market China economy, urgently is needed to consummate the economical forecast method, establishes the economical forecast system. The financial failure forecast the research results, flourished more and more daily the commercial bank regarding our country which but still not the mature stock market, the trend market started to assume responsibility for own profits and losses and just experiences changes the system starts to say from the load risk accounting firm, the significance appeared extremely significantly. This article first to domestic and foreign about went on the market the classical document which the corporate finance failure forecast to carry on the review and the summary, and deferred to the method differently to divide into the statistics class finance failure to forecast with must counted the financial failure to forecast. Next, is to goes on the market the corporate finance failure definition, the basic characteristic carries on the introduction. Because at present goes on the market the corporate finance failure theory not to be mature, the different scholar has the different understanding to the financial failure definition.In this article, unifies our country the actual situation, the author goes on the market the company specially to process (namely by the ST processing) the achievement is occurred the financial failure symbol, in the research the financial failure accurate limits for the corporate finance condition exceptionally by the STprocessing. After that separately analyzes from the macroscopic exterior factor and their internal factor goes on the market the corporate finance failure reason. In the research sample choice, this article first chose 35 ST Corporation which in 2006 increased to take in the research sample the financial failure company. In order to eliminate the profession, the scale factor to goes on the market company's influence, in pairs chooses the non-financial failure company time, and strictly defers to "the profession same, the scale is close" the standard, all went on the market in the company to select the non-financial failure which 35 paired to go on the market the company. In the sample data access aspect, considered forecast model precision with financial index information content and effectiveness for a period of time related, simultaneously unifies our country to go on the market company's annual report to disclose the system. May use in this article goes on the market the company by the ST previous 1 year l report data for the foundation establishment forecast model, like this both may avoid because in the model various samples data time span too long brings many questions, like macroscopic economical situation, currency change and so on influence, and can enhance the model the forecast precision, does not harm its practical application, has achieved two best unions. Going on the market the corporate finance failure to the this article main inspection to carry on the forecast, therefore mainly chooses in the financial index to be able to reflect goes on the market the company transport business ability, pays off a debt the ability, makes a profit the ability three aspects important targets, simultaneously considers the target data acquisition of information influence factor and so on difficulty degree. This article not as far as possible many financial index will bring into line with screening the scope, moreover directly will select and the financial failure relevance quite strong several financial on processing and the analysis. In addition, besides financial index, but also has introduced the non-financial index, this also is this article one of innovations. Because looked from the domestic and foreign scholars' research situation, goes on the market the corporate finance failure research regarding our country, the majority people all is carries on through the financial index goes on the market the corporate finance failure analysis and the forecast, but comes regarding the non-financial index to go on the market the corporate finance failure to forecast relatively wants few somewhat. Possibly can appear two aspects the questions: On the one hand neglected went on the market the corporate finance to report other included the concealment information the part; On the other hand, it obtains the result must establish in goes on the market the corporate finance to report the data could really respond in the company real management condition supposition foundation, carried on the financial failure forecast when our country especially must pay attention to these questions regarding the financial index use. As a result of the historical reason, our country existing accounting system is not perfect, jobholders quality irregular, accounting data quality not entirely as desired, the information valid insufficiency, the information distort, question and so on false statement is not allow to neglect. In this kind of situation, completely uses goes on the market the corporate finance to report the data the financial index carries on the analysis, has some aspects the question: Goes on the market the corporate finance report is the management result, also possibly includes the management level operation. In has in front of the serious consequence, these financial reports have possibly covered certain real situations. Therefore, this article the non-financial index introduction explanation variable in, hoped can cast aside the report form moisture content, makes up insufficiency which the report form variable authentic aspect possibly exists, enhances the model to be accurate rate. Meanwhile as a result of country concrete national condition, has the possibility to cause can it be that the financial index variable accuracy to be better.In through after target two screen, myself have utilized two kind of most typical statistics class methods Fisher distinction law and the Logistic return analytic method to go on the market the corporate finance failure to forecast conducts the real diagnosis research. Obtains the conclusion is: From on longitudinal looked that, to goes on the market in the analysis which the corporate finance failure forecast, when uses the Fisher return model, after has introduced the non-financial index, may enable the distinction result to obtain the certain degree the improvement. When uses the Logistic distinction analysis model, after introduces the non-financial index, may when the model is accurate rate obtains the certain degree the enhancement. This indicated only uses the financial index establishment model, after introduces the non-financial index to establish the model, said obtains in the result accuracy has the certain degree the difference; But the non-financial index introduction model, has to the model accuracy the certain degree the influence, and enables the model the accuracy to obtain the certain degree the improvement. From on crosswise looked that, will use the Fisher return model as obtained and as obtained uses the Logistic distinction analysis model as the result to carry on the contrast as the result, regardless of will be only uses the financial index establishment model or the non-financial index introduction model, all will be allowed to discover will use the Logistic distinction analysis model in the whole accurately to carry on the forecast rate to have obviously to be higher than uses the Fisher return model to be accurate rate, will cause the forecast result the confidence level large scale increase.