Research On The Best Way Of Grain Reserves Under Our Grain-Security System

The grain is one kind of important strategic resources. As the national security important constituent, the food security relates to a national social stability. Our government takes the grain production and the food security question extremely all the time.The author of this article thought the concept of food security should include two meanings: the balance between grain supply with demand and grain reserves security. Firstly this article forecasts the quantity of grain ration consumption, the forage crop demand, the seed with the grain demand, the demand of grain loss and other, then calculates the total demanding of grain from 2006 to 2030. Next, using the gray model to forecast our country's grain productivity from 2006 to 2030. According to the analysis on our country's grain supply and demand balance condition, the result of forecast showed that the total quantity of our country's grain supply and demand might maintain the basic balance in the future 25 years, the total quantity of grain can obtain the full safeguard. Finally, calculating the reasonable grain margin through the establishment food security reserve model which our country should have, this has guaranteed our country's grain reserves security. This article has completed the overall analysis on the balance between grain supply with demand and the safe of grain reserves from 2006 to 2030. In the ending part of the paper, the author also put forward several proposals on the reform of our country's grain reserves system in the future.