The Empirical Research On Predicting Crisis Of Going-concern In The Listed Companies

Because present market competition is intensifying day by day, the environment of the enterprise manages change to be more and more bigger, everywhere has filled the crisis and uncertainty. Slightly has carelessly can cause the company to occur crisis of going-concern, when the enterprise occurs crisis of going-concern can have the serious impact, affects the institute and contains the investor, the bank and so on. Therefore how effectively establishes a new Model to Identify crisis of going-concern, reduces the investor to lose, will be an urgent matter.Because purely provides by the company the financial report form material establishes the early warning model, is easy to affect by receiving the financial material not correct or colored, also the question of pulling out enterprise fund unceasingly occur by high level manager in the company, therefore if only considered the model which the financial variable carries on which the enterprise crisis to forewarn the research board causes to construct insufficiently to be complete, thus this research in will consider the non- financial variable, compared with whether will be able to sharpen its forecast ability.This article first chapter first introduced the background of this research and the theory value of selected topic and the practical significance, domestic and foreign have carried on the simple introduction to the correlation question research present situation and the research frame this article. In this chapter proposed the question of this article.The second chapter is continues to make a summary of the theory which forecasting crisis of going-concern, next continues the concept of going-concern, thoroughly analyzed the factors of going-concern, was allowed to divide into the financial factor and the non-financial factor, introduced the present quite popular determination and the forecast method, and have made the detailed analysis comparison to these methods, finally has carried on the summary to these models. The third chapter is goes on The Empirical Research on Predicting Crisis of Going-concern in the Listed Companies. In this chapter, we take the manufacturing industry as the sample to study, we will classify the crisis company and the normal company, choice real diagnosis research period, each kind of target variable, then to these samples carries on the description analysis, after finally will use Logistic to establishes the forecast model which only contains the financial factor and the forecast model which considered the non-financial factor, and will carry on the effect examination to these two models, after joining the non-financial factor whether will be able to sharpen its forecast ability.The fourth chapter is introduce main content of this paper, and analyzes the characteristic and the deficiency of this paper, and puts forward the correlation proposal.