Model Construction And Empirical Study On Credit Risk Evaluation In Chinese Listed Companies

In recent years, there still exist a lot of listed companies being specially transacted for their abnormal financial position in Chinese stock market; this kind of bankruptcy credit has been a common question. Research on the credit risk management of listed companies has great significance, which can be propitious to stock market supervision, Keeping down the credit risk and protecting stock investors' advantage. It is in this context of times that the paper studies the credit risk evaluation, which is the fundamental factor in the credit risk management. The paper has introduced the definition and classification of the credit risks of listed companies at first. Then, according to the developing history of domestic and international credit risks assessing and management, the paper has classified the credit risk assessment model by three types and introduced and compared those important and classic ones in detail . After introducing the three types of risk management of credit, according to the condition of the credit risk assessment and the credit risk management of listed companies in our country, it selected 120 annual financial statements of listed companies from 2002 to 2005 as the sample studying, and adopted Logistic regression analysis techniques to set up two models that based on financial statement and market-value ratios to assess the credit risks of listed company in our country. Positive researches indicated that the prediction correct rate of sample is satisfied between year T-1 and T-2.