The Empirical Study For Chinese Listed Companies Credit Risk Conduction Model

At present, the credit risk assessment of Chinese enterprise tends to use sophisticated evaluation of foreign methods and models, and it pays more attention to internal credit risk factors. But it is Lack of measurement of this process:changes in macroeconomic conditions cause metric chain reaction of corporate credit risk, and eventually lead to changes in the level of corporate credit risk. It's difficult to effectively suggest credit risk through results of the evaluation. The conduction effect of changes in macroeconomic conditions on corporate credit risk is studied in this paper with empirical method, the aim is to provide empirical evidence to solve technical and moral hazard problem of the credit risk assessment model.On the basis of reviewing and learning the existing research results systematically, from the related theories of enterprise credit risk, based on credit risk rating standards and ST standard, this paper uses 100 samples of Chinese manufacturing listed companies, chooses the 2007-2009 time window, forms sample of 300 observations. It builds credit risk conduction model on listed companies in China, using significant cash flow indicators as vehicle of credit risk conduction, GDP growth rate as the conduction factors of macroeconomic situation, and credit risk conduction effects are considered.The research finds:(1) Five financial indicators have significant representation ability on corporate credit risk:cash ratio, current assets cash ratio, total debt cash flow ratio, net profit operating cash ratio, external financing ratio. Generally, credit risk conduction model based on those indicators can judge the risky samples with diagnostic accuracy 93.8%, no-risk samples with diagnostic accuracy 72.9%; (2) GDP growth rate has a conduction effect, it leads to changes in the value of corporate credit risk ultimately through conduction vector cash flow indicators. And in the process of credit risk conduction, as time goes on, the credit risk conduction effect shows a strengthening trend.