Credit Risk Assessment Model For China's Listed Companies To Establish And Empirical Research

Credit crisis is one of the major reasons triggered financial crisis. In China, the credit research on listed companies is imminent. Analysis and effective control of listed companies' credit risk, the macro level is conducive to the stability of the entire financial system and market economy development, the micro level is conducive to investment activities in various economic entities operating safety.Taking into account China's tertiary industry, the credit risk of listed companies with the development of tertiary industry is also gradually increasing. In this paper, on the basis of measurement studies fully absorbed the credit risk of listed companies at home and abroad, through summarizing the forms of listed companies' credit risk in China and the situation of the tertiary industry, it put forward a set of indicators based on the traditional financial indicators with a combination of cash flow targets system. Selected for the 46 breach of contract sample of the tertiary industry listed companies which is special treatment in the year of 2007 and 2009, and the corresponding normal samples, the sample data is the average of financial data specially treated before its 1-3 years. Using factor analysis, Logistic regression analysis and Fisher discriminant analysis, it set up the credit risk evaluation model of listed companies, with comparative analysis, and test samples for prediction.Empirical studies have shown that the two models of default risk prediction accuracy rates are high, with the capability which can forecast of listed companies' credit risk early. To find out important discriminant indicators, establishing risk monitoring system, focused on management decision-making listed companies to provide objective evaluation criteria.