Study On Sustainable Development Of Petroleum Resource In Three Provinces Of Northeast China

Up to 2004 year's end, the northeast three provinces petroleum accumulative proved recoverable reserves 3.12366 billion tons, occupies the nation 46.0%, the remaining recoverable reserves 892.991 million tons, occupy the nation 35.85%. The petroleum industry of three province of northeast China has occupied about 40% of the whole, so it has far-reaching significance to study the sustainable development of its petroleum resource.This article content mainly include three parts:1st, Paper analyzes oil and gas resource reserves and current situations of utilization in the three northeast provinces in the foundation which the predecessor works, proposes at present the northeast three provinces oil gases resources exploitation and development use are facing so many problems such as the reserve recoverable resources insufficient, the safety control mechanism lacks, oil gases waste seriously, the science and technology aggregate level not high as well as non-convention oil resource exploration development ability is weaker and so on.2nd,Paper uses the grey system theory to construct GM(1,1) the northeast three provinces oil output forecast model and consumption forecast model from now to 2020, and uses data to reveal the contradiction between supply and demand of oil and gas resources in an increasingly grim: overall, the northeast three provinces oil gases resources fall short of demand from 2003, to 2010, northeast three provinces petroleum total consumption quantity will be 105.8477 million tons, but the ultimate output will be 56.7585 million tons, the degree of protection is 53.6%, in 2020 the petroleum total consumption quantity will be 186.6064 million tons, the ultimate output will be 45.4588 million tons, the degree of protection is only 24.4%,the next several years, the oil resource serious will be short.Liaoning Province the petroleum output from the database year 1998 already could not satisfy the demand, furthermore, the supply weak situation is severe year by year. In 2010, Liaoning Province petroleum consumption quantity will be 80.6807 million tons, but the output only has 11.4977 million tons, the degree of protection is 14.3%, in 2020 the petroleum consumption quantity will be 174.6003 million tons, the output only has 9.3947million tons, the degree of protection only has 5.4%. Until 2004 year's end Liaoning Province the petroleum remaining recoverable reserves is 176 million tons, according to the petroleum output prediction model 2005-2020 Liaoning Province petroleum ultimate output is about 175million tons, this means to 2020 Liaoning petroleum remaining recoverable reserves has close dried up.The Jilin Province petroleum output and the consumption quantity now has a increase tendency, and both increase scope approximately quite. Although Jilin Province's petroleum output is increasing year by year, but still will not be able to catch up with the consumption quantity growth in the future 13 years, in 2010, Jilin Province petroleum consumption quantity will be 11.2812 million tons, but the output will be 7.7183 million tons, the degree of protection is 68.42%, in 2015 the petroleum consumption quantity will be 14.1693 million tons, the output will be 11.1247 million tons, the degree of protection is 78.5%,until 2020 Jilin province petroleum will still not be able to satisfy the demand. but because of a very good petroleum potential, Jilin province petroleum resource will make the important contribution for the country in the future.The Heilongjiang Province oil resource is rich, so far, Heilongjiang Province's petroleum output can completely satisfy the province demand. In 2010, the Heilongjiang Province petroleum consumption quantity will be 17.2015 million tons, the output 39.2787 will be million tons, in 2020 the petroleum consumption quantity will be 18.8402 million tons, the output 29.0403 will be million tons, so to 2020, the Heilongjiang Province petroleum output can meet this province need, but the petroleum output rapidly decreases at about 1.3 million tons every year, the superiority is weaken and hide oil resource short crisis.3rd, this article taking the sustainable development theory, the natural resource economics theory and the circulation economic theory as the guiding ideology, based in depth analysis of the three provinces in Northeast China various problems in oil and gas resources development and utilization, raises 9 measures and suggestions of the oil and gas resources of sustainable development in the three northeastern provinces, and it has important reference value for the relevant departments to formulate the three provinces in northeast China oil and gas resources planning.