Study On The Change Of Cultivated Land Use And Dynamic Simulation In Guangzhou City

Cultivated land is a precious part of land and the basic source for agricultural production. The pressure of demand from every aspect is becoming more and more intense with the increase of population and the development of economy. In China, with the rapid economic development, cultivated land resource has been undergoing great change in using mode and quality. Therefore, it is significant to study the change of cultivated land in both theory and practice.This study chooses the cultivated land resource in Guangzhou which is located in Pearl triangle as the research object. It analyzes the rules of its use change by means of statistical method and the long time serial data that from1950~2004. It is found that, with the impact of high-speed economic development, the use change of cultivated land in Guangzhou displays the following dynamic features: the quantity of cultivated land keeps decreasing; the regional relative change of cultivated land is in great difference; the overall quality of cultivated land is in poor level. Then the study on the dynamic mechanism of the cultivated land use change in Guangzhou through systematic analysis and principal component analysis verifies that the activity of human being is the main driving force of the change of cultivated land. Moreover, based upon the key effect brought about by the urbanization and industrialization in the course of the cultivated land use change, this study emphasizes the relationship between the cultivated use change and the economic development as well as the change of population, and exposes the prominent effect of population, urbanization, fixed assets, residence income upon the use change of cultivated land.Based on the previous analysis, this study builds up the dynamic simulation model with the theory of system dynamic. Beginning with 2000's data, it mainly discusses three cultivated land use scenes on the basis of change of control variances, namely, common increasing mode, high-speed economy development mode, and harmonious and continuous economy development mode, thus predicts and simulates the change of the cultivated land in Guangzhou from 2000~2020. As a result, the prediction and simulation should be beneficial to the cultivated land use as warrants effectively in such area. What's more, it makes the direction and reference for constituting the social and economic development stratagem in the study area.