Research On Rural Power Market Supply And Demand Equilibrium Analysis Method And Application

In the rural power market, the balance of supply and demand of rural electricity is the key factor to guarantee the stable operation of rural electricity market, realize the sustainable development of the rural economy and improve the living standard of the majority of farmers. Therefore, we must pay attention to the rural power market supply and demand equilibrium analysis. To realize the equilibrium of supply and demand in the rural power market, we should do some work as follows. First, an rural power market demand forecasting model should be built to make a precise forecast of power demand. Second, build a reasonable evaluation model of power supply capacity. Third, put forward a scientific and reasonable rural electric power market supply and demand equilibrium analysis method to judge the equilibrium of supply and demand in the rural power market. On the basis of that method, optimize the supply and demand of rural power, then realize the equilibrium of supply and demand in the rural power market. Therefore, this research has vital theoretic value and practical significance.On the basis of previous study, this paper studied the related theory and method of the supply and demand balance of rural power market in the following aspects.(1)The main factors of equilibrium of supply and demand is studied on the basis of the introduction of rural market related theory. The paper put forward the load and the installed capacity, the suppliers'power structure, climate factors, policy factors, the rural economy development status and the substitutes are main factors of the equilibrium of supply and demand, and a detailed study of the achievements of the load the influence of the equilibrium of supply and demand.(2)The demand of the rural electricity market is studied in the paper. The paper proposed the rural electricity price, rural economic development, the construction management level of rural electricity and government policy are the main influence factors of demand. The home appliance to the countryside policy impact on electricity demand for rural residents is studied in this paper.(3)The common prediction model is studied in this paper. The PCA-MIX-SVM power load forecasting model is put forward on the basis of many influence factors of electricity load, that is the principal component analysis based on mixed support vector machine rural power load forecasting model. In the research of power demand prediction, we find that a single prediction method is hard to ensure that you get more accurate prediction results. Therefore, this paper proposed the power consumption demand forecasting model based on DS weight theory, that is, respectively established the support vector machine (SVM), multiple regression, grey power consumption demand forecasting model, and then predict the error of real dates and practical values based on the three methods, and use the evidence theory to calculate the combination weights of various methods, and the final prediction electricity demand is calculated.(4)In the analysis of market supply ability, the article studied the evaluating methods of power supply ability and the main influencing factors of rural electric market supply capacity, and the dynamic performance evaluation index and rural electric static performance evaluation indexes were put forward. From the power supply reliability, site layout, line condition, transformer condition four aspects, rural power grid building supply capacity evaluation index system was proposed in the article, and on the basis of that, the rural electric market comprehensive evaluation model based on entropy weight gray interval correlation model was proposed in the article.(5)The market equilibrium theory was studied in this article. It analyzed the difference between the rural market equilibrium and the general market equilibrium, and summarized the main factors which influence the equilibrium of supply and demand in the rural market from the supply and demand aspect respectively. On the basis of that, the paper studied the equilibrium model of supply and demand and balance judgement method of supply and demand. From the interests of power purchase, this article proposed the rural market equilibrium model based on GA-MPT optimal power purchase strategy. At the same time, a detailed analysis on the imbalances of rural market was given in this paper and the way to realize long-term equilibrium of rural electric market was also proposed.(6)This thesis introduced the Hebei south electric grids rural market and Hebei south electric grid sample county rural area as cases to verify the models proposed above and pointed out the problems of rural electric power market equilibrium. At the same time, the measure and suggestion of realizing the rural electric market long-term equilibrium were put forward in this article.The main innovation points are listed as follows. Firstly, a novel forecast model named PCA-MIX-SVM rural market load forecasting model was put forward in this paper for the character that so many influence factors of rural power load forecasting are exist, and the forecasting accuracy was testified in the paper. Secondly, in the demand forecasting of power consumption we found that a single prediction method was difficult to ensure the prediction accuracy, and based on this DS theory weight fusion power consumption demand forecasting model was put forward in this paper to improve the power consumption forecasting accuracy. Thirdly, in the study of rural power market supply capacity evaluation, the rural power grid supply capacity evaluation index system was built, and the rural power market supply ability comprehensive evaluation model based on entropy weight and grey correlation was put forward in this paper. Finally, the equilibrium model of supply and demand and balanced judgment method were studied in this paper and the rural power market equilibrium model based on optimal power purchase was put forward in this paper.