Research On Fluctuation And Influence Factors Of Hog Production In Jilin Province

Agriculture, rural areas and farmers have always have been the strategic issue about the overall economic and social development, giving priority to "three rural" issues has became the party and national consensus. Livestock is an important part of agriculture. It plays an important role that vigorously developed animal husbandry for development of modern agriculture, increasing farmers income, building a moderately prosperous society.In the animal husbandry, the development of pig industry is faster and has been the dominant. Pig industry has been playing an important part in the production of agriculture and animal husbandry, and pig production has been the main source of farmers' income, according to statistics, China's pork consumption accounts for more than 50 percent of total consumption of meat, so the development of pig industry has been given the universal attention by our society. From the view of the phenomenon of pig production in China's four major areas (Sichuan basin, Yangtze river valley, Huanghuai valley, Northeast), the distribution of China's pig production is transforming, it presents the situation that shifting from the south to the north which are the major grain producing areas, and the pig production in northeast is developing faster.Jilin province is located in Songliao plain hinterland, it is the important livestock production base and major grain-producing areas of China, as our country's important "golden corn belt", Jilin not only has the rich grain resources, but also has the weaker influence of the "artificial environment" technology on pig production because of the development of technology, since the reform and opening, the pig industry has been developing faster, and it has become one of landmark industry of the livestock industry in Jilin province, it is also the important way to increasing farmers' income. But judging from the recent years, new problems of pig production in Jilin province and even the whole country has appeared. On one hand, the fluctuant scope of the quantities of the hogs storage, hogs production and pork production are bigger, on the other hand, the prices of pork and grains for hog production is rising faster. All of these factors cause the bigger fluctuant of hog production.In order to concretely know the hog production fluctuant and influence degrees of various factors on hog production in Jilin province, this paper articulated and analyzed the data from the Statistic Yearbook, and divided the fluctuant cycle from 1985 to 2008 by using the speed method, the surplus method and HP filtering method. From comparing the results of the above three methods, the paper got the conclusions:the hog fluctuant in Jilin province experience 4 cycles in two decades, the average wavelength is 4.8 years, the average amplitude is 44%. This paper use simple linear function to analyze the influence degree of all factors to the fluctuant of hog production. The main factors that this paper selected are the price of pork, the price of corn, the quantity of the propagated hog, the hog product degree, the growth of GDP, disease situation and related policy factors. Because impact of pig production to each factor exist hysteresis reaction, this paper used three model analyzed respectively through no hysteresis, 1 year hysteresis, 2 years hysteresis, its specific analysis conclusions are as follows: The first, each factor's influence to hog production in the same year. From viewing the conclusion of no hysteresis reaction, the influence of corn price, production degree and the relevant policy to hog production is obviously, the influence degree of the corn price and relevant policy is bigger, among all the influence factors, corn price, production degree, the GDP growth and relevant policy have positively relationship with pork production, and other factors have the negative relationship with hog production.The second, each factor's influence to hog production in the second year. From viewing the result of the 1 year hysteresis, the pork price, production degree and disease situation has obvious impact on the hog product, the disease situation's impact on hog production is bigger. The five factors of pork price, corn price, production degree, the GDP growth and relevant policy have the positive impact on hog production in the second year. The influence of the quantity of propagate hog and the disease situation have the negative impact on hog production in the second year.The third, each factor's influence to hog production in the third year. From viewing the result of 2 year hysteresis, the pork price, the quantity of propagate hog, production degree, the GDP growth and relevant policy have obvious impact to hog production in the third year. The GDP growth's influence to hog production is bigger, other factors' is smaller. The factors like the pork price, the quantity of propagate hog and the GDP growth have positive impact to the hog production, the corn price, the production degree and disease situation has the negative impact to hog production in the third year.The fourth, from viewing three models, the result of 2 years hysteresis model is better, it also has the highest goodness-of-fit statistical significance, it also has most factors that has obvious statistical significance, it can be use to forecast and analysis all factors'impact on the hog production.