The Study On Fluctuant Features Of Dalian Container Freight Index

For the past few years, global economic activities continued to slump affected by the international financial crisis, and thus it was a serious blow to the container shipping market. With the establishment of the P3 Alliance(Maersk, CMA CGM, MSC) and the G6 Alliance(APL, HMM, MOL, Hapag-Lloyd, NYK, OOCL), the war on global container shipping market has been pulled opening prologue.In order to grasp the container shipping market trend better, and to accelerate the pace of building Dalian International Shipping Center in Northeast Asia, Dalian prepared and released Dalian Container Freight Index in 2011. Due to the nature of freight index similar with financial time series, shipping operators and investors can be helped evade risk to some extent through analyzing freight index, and it can also help local businesses know market dynamics and make advanced decisions.This paper selects DCFI weekly data on July 15,2011 to March 9,2015 released by Port of Dalian Authority. To begin with, this paper analyzes DCFI and freight of its routes, finding that DCFI continued downward trend and its fluctuation mainly affected by the freight of European and Mediterranean route. On this basis, this paper processes the index first, and tests the stability and correlation of monthly and quarterly week yield, and fits their fluctuation characteristics with ARMA model by using related software. This paper ascertains the main factors influencing DCFI by analyzing its fluctuation characteristics. Then this paper compares DCFI with CCFI and new SCFI. The result implies that there is a strong correlation among three indexes. DCFI should be improved compared to the mature indexes.This study systematically analyzed the development process since it is released. It may provide a reference for improvement and further research on DCFI.