| Thermal coal, asthe connection link between electricity industry and coal industry, can reflect the relationship between these two major energy sources and is crucial to the security of national energy resources supply and the sustainable development of national economy. Therefore, investing characteristics of coal consumption and scientifically forecasting the demand of thermal coal have guiding significance for the power industry to reasonably arrange its procurement plans and optimize companies’business strategy. This paper describe the current situation of demand and supply of coal and future trends, in addition, this article carried on the system to factors affecting the coal demand, such as macroeconomic policies, thermal power and hydropower; on this basis, this article built a single timing series ARMA model of coal demand and the overall prediction based on the multivariable co-integration model, then got useful conclusions, which included the forecasting monthly demand of thermal coal, as well as the relationship and the extent among affecting factors. Testing results shows that the model fits well, and the multivariable co-integration model has a higher accuracy than the single time series forecasting model. |
