Industry Chain Risk Transmission Theory And Its Applications

The thesis subject of this paper result from the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant 70572090, "Enterprise Project Chain Risk Elements Transmission Theory Research Under Informationization Environment". This paper mainly studies on the risk transfer and control mechanism in the industrial chain. According to two basic industry chain structure—the linear industrial chain and pyramid industrial chain, the risk transfer models of industry chain is built. Through the linear risk transfer formula and triangle risk probability estimation methods, the risk loss is calculated and estimated, and the key risk nodes is analyzed, the control method is put forward. Through ant colony algorithm, the pyramid industrial chain risk transfer model is built, and the risk distribution between different levels and different enterprises in the same level is analyzed, the main point that the decision should focus on is put forward.In this paper, the bask structure theory of industrial chain is put forward creatively, and the transfer method between other industrial structure and the fundamental structure is proposed. And based on the structure theory of industrial chain, two risk assessment models which correspond with the linear and pyramid industrial chain are proposed. By simulating and quantitative method, the risk loss and risk condition in the whole industrial chain and enterprise are calculated. This paper stands on the enterprise strategic decision-making height. The related thought is used to analyze the basic situation of enterprise in the industrial chain. This can help enterprise decision to make clearly and accurately understanding of their industry position and auxiliary the enterprise decision to make long-term enterprise development direction according to the enterprise's situation.