Construction And Measuring Study On Agricultural Modernization Evaluation Index System Of Major Grain Producing Areas

In the beginning of "Twelve Five", which is a critical period for our country to transform from traditional agriculture to modern agriculture, a significant change in economic structure has been taken place between urban and rural areas. Agricultural modernization becomes a necessary part in our nation's modernization process, how to promote agricultural modernization has become a important issues of our country and government at all levels. It's first importance and concerned for government to to ensure national food security and stability supply of agricultural products in recent years. What's more, China puts forward the statement of"major grain producing areas", meanwhile promotes new rural construction of main grain areas into a very important strategic position. Major grain producing areas proves itself to be priority support object of national agricultural policy, especially the importance of whose agricultural modernization has been promoted into strategic level by the State Government in recent years. In this historical opportunity and background, What role does the major grain producing areas play in the historical period of agricultural development, whether its way of development conforms with our country's overall development process, or what development degree of its agricultural modernization, all these questions are worthy of discussion and further research.Combining with historical and current background, this paper learned from a wide range of famous experts and scholars'research on theory and practice views of agricultural modernization, based on 25 year's historical data, assessed agricultural modernization degree of major grain producing areas in 25 years by using Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP method). Firstly, according to the basic theory of agricultural modernization, the author came up with the contents and research direction of agricultural modernization in main grain producing areas. Secondly, combined with current research situation in this field and compared with many kinds of multi-index evaluation methods, the author concentrated on key point of agricultural modernization in the major grain producing areas, proposed agricultural modernization evaluation system of major grain producing areas. Thirdly, in the process of calculaing agricultural modernization level in major grain producing areas, this article took method of sub-regional, sub-index contrast. Then draw on relevant conclusions: the levels of agricultural development in grain production area reflects the overall condition of China's agricultural development to some extent. The level of agricultural modernization and economic development shows closely related, and the regional agricultural modernization presents imbalanced way of development. On factors that affect the level of modernization, different index play various role, but the future agricultural development trend will demonstrate its more emphasis on rural society, urban-rural integration and agricultural sustainable and so on. Fourthly, This article took advantage of time series models to predict the level of agricultural modernization in various regions of the major grain producing areas. The results show that, according to the practical situation and general trend of China's agricultural development, different regions may have different course to reach the takeoff period, east China earlier, the southwest last. Until 2030, whole of the major grain producing areas will reach to the takeoff stage of agricultural modernization. However, it takes more long time to achieve the mature period of agricultural modernization. When observing and study modernization level of agricultural development in major grain producing areas in 25 years, this study always takes into account of past process and future development trends, and compares with different periods, different levele of each region's agricultural modernization in major grain producing areas, which makes for appropriate understanding for the overall development status of agricultural modernization in major grain producing areas, and also has positive significance to the whole programming of our country's agricultural modernization as well as promoting further development of China's agricultural modernization.