The Analysis On Change And Influence Of Grain Production In Hubei Province For The Last 30 Years

After the reform and opening-up policy, the rapid develop of social economy not only provide great opportunities for grain production, but also bring some serious crisis. The situation of grain product, supply and demand became more complicated. As the state's major agricultural province and grain-producing province, the grain production of Hubei province is very significant to promote regional development and to ensure the national grain security.This article uses the related data of grain production in Hubei province from 1978 to 2008 as the basis. We use means of peasant household survey, statistical analysis, regression analysis and GIS analysis. Combining with quantitative analysis and qualitative description, taking the latest social and economic situation into consideration, we introduced the change of grain production resources and analyzed the variation characteristics of grain production in Hubei province for the last 30 years. It contains spatial and temporal variation, structure change and production mode change. It also deeply analyzes the reason and influence of these changes. The main research results are as follows:1. The resources of grain production in Hubei province have changed considerably for the last 30 years. The cultivated land resource and agricultural labor force reduced significantly, and the quality also appeared a certain degree of deteriorating. The agricultural technology has enhanced, the ownership and usage of agricultural machinery increased, but still needs to be strengthen. The agricultural irrigation ameliorated, but the consumption of agricultural water is great and the waste of water resource is very serious.2. The temporal variation of grain production in Hubei province is obvious for the last 30 years. The total grain yield present four obvious stages, the change trend of grain per capita was similar to the total grain yield. The regional difference of grain production in Hubei province is quite obvious, grain yield in different areas is quite distinct. The sowing area of grain crops in Hubei province dropped, and the yield of different grain crops has different influence to the grain production of the whole province. Meanwhile, the mode of grain production changed obviously and the mechanization level of grain production also increased.3. The change of grain production in Hubei province is obvious. Reasons for such change from the source, is mainly concerned by the comprehensive influence of urbanization, national policy, natural disasters and technical progress. As the complexity of social economy increased, the correlations of these influence factors and grain yield is weakening.4. The change of grain production in Hubei province has great influence on farmer income, regional social economy and national grain security. With the development of social economy, farmers'activities choose became more diverse, agricultural income especially grain income is no longer the only and the main source of income. The food yield and peasants' income gradually filter out of corresponding relation. These changes of grain production have no apparent negative effect on the development of social economy in Hubei province. But the direct contributions and pull function of agriculture production to economic abate gradually. The reduction of grain yield made Hubei's contribution to national grain security dropped. Hubei province, as an important agricultural province and grain production base, did not get the overall effective play in stabilizing countries agricultural production and guaranteeing the national grain security.