A Study On Fluctuations And Causes Of China's Foreign Trade Growth

Since the reform and opening-up, China's foreign trade has made great progress, making a substantial contribution to our country's economic development. In 2010, China's foreign trade volume has been ranked second in the world firmly. Being recognized as a big country in trade, China is bound to make efforts towards the target of becoming a strong one. Sustained and stable growth of foreign trade is an important performance of trade power. Stability and volatility is a group of relative concept, the operation of any system will show volatility and international trade is no exception. China's foreign trade volume has been increasing in most of the time, but if we observe its growth rate then we will find there exits a significant volatility. Volatility is an objective reality, which can not be avoided, but excessive fluctuations will have an adverse impact on trade department or even the overall national economy.Only on the basis of conducting a deep research of characteristics and causes of trade, the relative balance between stability and fluctuations will be made successfully.By comprehensively using the theory of business cycle and knowledge of international trade, macroeconomics, econometrics, and statistics, this article is aimed to attempt to discuss preliminarily about volatility of growth of China's foreign trade. Trade in goods and trade in service are two important components of foreign trade. Considering that the two show own characteristics due to having difference in industrial base, trade mode and influence factors, this study will be conducted in respective angle of trade in goods and in services first, At this stage the study will mainly analyze the characteristics of cycle fluctuations of trade growth, and compare the volatility of the two type of trade from the angle of synergies and differences. Then the study will explain the causes of volatility by factor analysis method.