A Study On The Impact Of Housing Provident Fund On The Housing Prices In China

Housing provident fund system was a system innovation in the1990s, which realized the quickly changes from the physical distribution of housing to monetary distribution. It has played a key role in improving housing supply system and the living conditions of low-income families in our country. Since the housing reform, China’s real estate market has gone through four regulation stages:the initial stage of the policy to support the market, tightening policy during over-investment period, the policy support during the financial crisis period and "New Deal" of real estate. From cooperating with the national regulation of the housing market in many ways, housing fund plays an important role in the previous regulation of the real estate. Now, with the continuous improvement of housing provident fund system and the increasing of covering and the size of loans, the impact of the housing fund to housing needs of residents are growing. The impact of the housing fund to housing consumption of the residents and housing price increases, adjusting the housing fund loan policy has become a more effective method to regulating the real estate market. By adjusting the housing fund loan policy, we try to protect the rigid demand and curb speculative investment demand; finally we can regulate the housing prices. In recent years, the frequency and adjustment of the housing fund loan policies to affect housing demand of the government is rising. Therefore, under the background of real estate macro-control, the impact of the housing fund to housing prices is worthy of further exploration.Firstly, this paper analyzes the relevance of the housing fund and the housing market. It describes the correlation between the housing fund and the price of housing market. Housing fund has played a big impact on the construction of affordable housing and real estate market. Secondly, the impact of the housing fund to the housing market supply and demand and housing prices is analyzed theoretically. Impact of the housing accumulation fund to housing supply is reflected in the use of idle funds to support construction of affordable housing, increasing the supply of affordable housing, and promoting the rationalization of housing structure, and affecting the housing prices through expectations. Housing fund have a significant impact on housing demand. Housing provident fund system can enhance the affordability of housing consumption of urban residents, Housing provident fund policy adjustments can change the ability of housing consumption and then the housing demand. Based on research of housing supply and housing demand, this paper analyzed the short-term and long-term effects of the housing provident fund to housing prices. In the short term, tighter loan policies can inhibit the excessive growth of house prices, loose loan policies may lift housing prices. However, in the long term, the impact direction of the housing provident fund to housing prices can not be simply determined from the theoretical analysis. Thirdly, by panel data regression method and using analyzing the data of eight time-series variables and41prefecture-level cities, the paper studies the long-term effects of housing provident fund loans and loan interest rates to commercial housing prices empirically. It proves that the housing provident fund loans have some positive effect on house prices, housing provident fund loan interest rate has a negative effect on prices, housing fund can effectively regulate the real estate market prices. Finally, this paper presents some countermeasures about how to fully use the housing fund. For example, improving the housing fund equity and the housing provident fund interest rate pricing mechanism and the efficiency of the housing provident fund, firmly controlling speculative investment in housing demand, building multi-level housing supply system.Research on the mechanism of the effect of housing fund to housing prices can enrich and improve the content of the real estate price affecting factor. Based on the relation of housing policy and housing finance markets, research on housing finance policy intervention framework, will help expand basic research in the field of domestic theory, it also can provide a more comprehensive perspective about the systemic impact on housing finance to housing market. Besides, it contributes to the development of housing finance policy for government departments so that the government can rationally regulate housing finance policy tools to cope with the macro-control policy measures. Moreover, it can help in understanding the long-term direction of the objective dimension of the housing provident fund system. Under the background of monetary policy transformation and the trend of future housing finance market development, understanding the regulation of the housing fund pros and cons in future can contribute to the housing market, housing finance market and long-term health of the coordinated development of the national economy.