Studies On The Precaution Of Cultivated Land Resource In The Huailai County

The safety issues of cultivated land resource are related to human's existence and development of important issues. Cultivated land resource is the essence of land resource, and is one of the most essential strategic resources in our country. Cultivated land safety is the best guarantee of grain security,social safety and ecological security in our country,and directly effects the economic development and social stability. During the rapid development of economy and society,dealing well with the relation between the balanced supply and demand of cultivated land and the guarantee of food safety,is one of the critical problems of ensuring cultivated land resource to develop sustainably. That, the geographical location and the construction of surrounding the capital green economic circle ,have already determined the development direction of Huailai.;besides, new developments must put forward new requirements for resource and environment; while meeting the demand of the social and economic development in occupying the cultivated land resource, it will be a arduous and urgent task to protect the cultivated land resource and make it develop safely and healthily. So, there must be a very important meaning to make a theoretical and empirical research on the cultivated land precaution system of this area.This paper, based on consulting document literature about the cultivated land precaution all over the world, from the angle of regional cultivated land resource safety,looking on the food's supply and demand balance as the basis,doing the theoretical and empirical research about cultivated land resource precaution system., and based on qualitative description of cultivated land resource safety and precaution index system, systematically puts forward the technology system and research method of cultivated land resource precaution research. On the study of spatial and temporal variation pattern of cultivated land resource , it builds the double precaution model that makes the cultivated land pressure index and relative production capacity supply and demand index be the goal precaution factor,and defines warning degree scoring level by level. And it uses the research method of mathematical statistics analysis and measure model,and combines the theory with practice,then makes the systematic research for the cultivated land resource precaution from theory,method,index system and precaution technology. And it also puts forward the countermeasure of promoting area cultivated land resource to move healthily in order to supply the reference and mirror to the research of cultivated land resource safety..The results are as following:(1) The research can help us further understanding of the concept of cultivated land warning ."By using the scientific method, it could predict the future state of cultivated land, forecast the extent of the abnormal state of the space-time and degree of danger, and put forward the precautionary measure ."(2)With using yellow warning methods, the author establishes the early-warning index system of cultivated land resources, determines the goal precaution coefficient, constructs the model about the warning of cultivated land resource, divides the level of warning degrees, predicates the research area of cultivated land resource on safety warning degrees, and makes an analysis about alert.(3) The aggregate supply will be less than the aggregate demand of total cultivated land of Huailai county between 2010 to 2017,the cultivated land resource warning situation will be serious warning,the situation of cultivated land resource safety will be non-warning between 2018 to 2020,the situation of cultivated land safety will become better year by year.(4) There will be 171 villages'cultivated land resources that they are huge warning in 2015,the system will show that K≥0 and-1≤R≤0, there will be 15 villages'cultivated land resources that they are serious warning,the system will show that K≥0 and R≥0,three are serious huge warning,the system will show that K≥0 and R <-1,two are light warning,the system will show that K <0 and-1≤R≤0,88 are non-warning,the system will show that K <0 and R≥0.(5) There will be 131 villages'cultivated land resources that they are huge warning in 2020,the system will show that K≥0 and - 1≤R≤0, there will be 18 villages'cultivated land resources that they are serious warning,the system will show that K≥0 and R≥0,three are serious huge warning,the system will show that K≥0 and R <-1,127 are non-warning,the system will show that K <0 and R≥0.