Study On Dynamic Simulation Of Land Use And Landscape Pattern In Huailai County Based On CA-Markov Model

Human race are living in a complex earth system, which is interacting human beings with the nature. As the foundation of human existence, land resources is crucial to the development of mankind in future, and land use/cover change has become the significant component and one of major reasons in global environmental change. The study of land use landscape pattern can not only reveal its succession mechanisms, but also achieve the sustainable use of land resources. By studying, more deeply and more targeted ,on the landscape pattern of county, and putting forward the corresponding strategy of development, it will bring significant help for the overall planning and construction at zoning of county scale.In view of this, taking Huailai County for example, on the basis of ENVI software to extract land use information of remote sensing images in the 1995, 2002, 2009, by analysis methods of landscape such as landscape dynamics, landscape pattern indices, landscape transition matrix , landscape co-occurrence matrix, etc, systematic and comprehensive analyses were conducted on the land use change, characteristics and evolution of landscape spatial pattern during 1995-2009, then the influencing factors of landscape pattern changes are discussed in four aspects from nature, economy, society and policy. On this basis, by using CA-Markov Model, it would simulate the change from regional land use and landscape pattern. By above analyses, we can mainly reach the following conclusion.(1)In the 1995-2009 year period, land use pattern in Huailai County has greatly changed, presenting the trends as a whole, which are the increasing of the area of the construction land, orchard, and woodland and the decreasing of the area of cultivated land, water and unused land. The reducing part of cultivated land tranforms primarily to construction land, and its supplement chiefly comes from the garden, woodland and unused land, then the increasing of construction land depends mainly on the occupation of cultivated land and unused land. These changes are more due to enlargement in the interference of human activities for land-use change of Huailai County day by day. During 14 years, the landscape in general has been broken, besides, the spatial configuration of each patch in the landscape tends to complexity. (2)The gradient factor is extracted by DEM diagram of Huailai County. The index of gradient distribution reveals that the cultivated land, garden, construction land and water is mainly concentrated on the 0-15°;The factors of administrative center and transport strongly appeal to construction land, simultaneously, with away from the administrative center and transportation lines, the area of cultivated land and garden accelerates the rise; In the study of ecological factors, Huailai County urgently needs to focus on the protection of water and its buffer zone in future, and prohibit them evoluting for construction land in the transformation rules making.(3)Forecast that the impact of the landscape pattern on human activities would continue to be deepen, and the landscape pattern would tend to further fragmentation in Huailai County. According to the simulation, in 2009-2016 year period, landscape types of Huailai County would change obviously: cultivated land is decreasing endlessly, while the area of construction land continues to increase, and the rest of the landscape type has a slight change. At the same time, in Huailai County, landscape fragmentation reaches a deeper level; the average patch area tends to miniaturization; the index of plaque area variability and that of landscape evenness are all growing; landscape diversity shows upward trend, and the degree of landscape heterogeneity is continuously great.