Chengbu County Land Use Changs And Its Trend Analysis

The change of land-use is central to the Global Change Research. Whether in a global scale, a national or regional scale, the change of land-use resulted in the quick change of the land-cover. Strengthening the research on the changes of land resources on the quantity and quality plays an important role in protecting the region's sustained economic development, and ensuring the security of human living environment. The study on the local or regional case can illustrate the relationship of land-use and cover change and environmental change, and more scientifically determine the desired resolving capability in space and time to the change. Therefore, in order to have a research on the global land-use and cover change, it is necessary to carry out the study on the local or regional cases.This paper takes the Chengbu county of Hunan Province as the sample. By taking the GIS(Geographic Information System) technology, it analyzes the present land-use situation, the quantity change of land-use and the land-use degree change in Chengbu county on the basis of its land-use changes within the years from 1997 to 2005. And then, by taking the Markov model, this paper analyzes and predicts the land-use situation in the next few years. Meanwhile, it has a further research on the actuation force of the land-use change, and gets the following main conclusions.In study period, the land-use change in Chengbu county was comparatively obvious. Thereamong, the land-use of arable land, woodland and water resource facilities was much more obvious. Arable land was reduced by 1474.95 hectare or at 8.89%. Woodland was increased by 577.81 hectare or at 0.28%, and the land for water resource facilities was increased by 730.53 hectare or at 99.62%.The land-use type was unitary, and 80% of its land in total was woodland in Chengbu county.According to the analysis of the land-use degree change through 1997 to 2005, the land-use degree was not high. Generally speaking, the land-use degree was in a rising tendency. In 2005, the land-use degree was the highest, and its land-use degree change composite index was 231.71. In 1997, it was in the lowest point and its land-use degree change composite index was 230.56. According to the prediction, there will be the following features of the land-use in Chengbu county in the next few years.①. Arable land will be reduced faster. It will be reduced from 14118.27 hectare to 12893.99 hectare from 2011 to 2019, and the reducing average will be 153.04 hectare every year.②. Garden Plot, woodland, the residential area, the industry and mining land, the transportation land and the water resource facilities land will be increased.③. The land-use structure won't be reasonable.④. The degree of the land-use development will be low.In short-term, natural factors have little Influence on land-use change in Chengbu county. However, social economy factor is the main driving force influencing on land-use change. Social economy factor mainly consists of the population growth, the economic growth, the technology advancement and the policy behavior.