Study On Hydropower Project Construction Management Investment Risk In Preliminary Stage

Water conservancy and hydropower project is the project gathering flood protection, power generation, irrigation, water supply, the synthetical function benefits the nation and the people, especially hydropower is a economic utilization of renewable energy,its reasonable and orderly development has a great significance and strategic position for national economic and social development. But it's investment is huge, construction period is long, construction organization and the technology is complex, uncertain objective factors is very many, the investment risks are huge in time and space, however the state fund is major investor for a long time in China, enterprise investment about water conservancy and hydropower project is later, yet mature investment risk management experience cann't apply mechanically, investment often exist problem that budget exceeds its budget and final estimates, the benefit of investment is not complete exertion,which caused great waste or loss, so that it is urgent and necessary to study water conservancy and hydropower project investment and risk management research. On the other hand, investment decision stage and design stage are the greatest influence investment stage for total project. Therefore, this paper focuses on the investment risk research of water conservancy and electricity project in the preliminary stage.Firstly, project risk administration research carries out comparison on our country and abroad, and points out that the current domestic investment risk exists the problems;Then, on basis with investment of risk administration target studying water conservancy and hydropower project, bring forward water conservancy and hydropower project investment risk administrative organization;It have summapplicablyed up current common investment risk identification, the characteristics and applicably scope of appraising methods;This paper proposes project investment risk management system. The hierarchical analytical process, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and RBF network are expounded.To W hydraulic project as an example, main risk factors of the preliminary stage, design scheme choose stage and invite public bidding stage are determined. Adopting the multi-layer fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method analysis the investment risks of the preliminary stage, and finally the evaluation rating is medium risks.Immigration is the greatest risk of all risks, followed by design scheme, design change and policies laws change risks in pre-project risk factors, the conclusion is an accurate reflection of the actual project.Design scheme choose risk which affects the initial investment risk of important factors further analysed, using expert scoring method and AHP method compute the weight value of each select scheme to determine the various design, results comply with the design requirements of the feasibility study, However, this paper has introduced the RBF neural network, combined with AHP method get the weight value,using RBF neural network train sample, and checking samples randomly choose, result showed checking samples precision was very high, correlation coefficient(R)is 0.999, train sample measurement precision is 0.001,it's result is very close with AHP analysis result, selected scheme with RBF neural network is same with AHP method, it is scientific for scheme choice to apply RBF neural network, at the same time design investment risk can reduce.Finally reducing the pre-project investment risk measures,control and monitoring method are proposed.