| Vietnam is the most quickly country of GMS in development and statistical data of recent twenty years show that energy demand increases higher than its GDP annual growth rate. Energy development has been the bottleneck industry to restrict the economy and society development while it also is limited by the domestic and overseas investment. Hydropower leads the power generation of VN and it is confirmed that the installed capacity of hydropower and electricity power generated by hydropower ranks first always before 2001. Since to develop hydropower needs to occupy a mint of social sources - especially capital - by now the VN government is trying to financing for investing a lot of huge or middle-size hydropower projects and the target of hydropower development at 2020 is to exploit more than 60%. This essay tries to solve the finance and management problems interrelated by integrating the energy demand and hydropower development situation of VN.Based on many collected data, several models such as regression analysis, elastic coefficient method and seasonal index trend method are applied in predicting electricity demand for near and long terms. The results predicted are 52.1, 82.8 and 173.9 bKwh for 2005, 2010 and 2020 respectively. Under that the scaling-up rates of electricity demand are 9.71% and 7.7% for 2005-2010 and 2010-2020, and the average increasing rates are 11.79% and 11.0% respectively. Some strategy analysis tools such as PEST, SWOT, Boston or GE Matrix and Problem-Objective analysis are implemented and the results show that VN should take positive steps in hydropower development, enlargement and technology increasing. But the biggest bottleneck is short of capital, it means analysis for financing must be proceeded. The common financing ways could only bring 15% capital needed for VN hydropower development, includes capital from the government's capital program, those of EVN could be invested as corpus and capital from enterprises. But even these capital could not satisfy theinvestment demand of hydropower development for the scale in building of 2003~2005. In addition the overseas funds have participated some hydropower project in BOT and BT modes. To assist VN resolving the financing problem for hydropower development, new patterns as PROT, FEPCO, Water Rights for Power Generating and, Water Conservancy and Hydropower Facilities etc. are designed in the essay. PROT and FEPCO patterns could not only relax the developer from financing strength but also help the VN government to increase capital accumulation that could be poured into new hydropower projects. Water Rights for Power Generating and Water Conservancy and Hydropower Facilities patterns have the real meaning of sustainable development. Water Rights for Power Generating pattern encourages to invest non-dam hydropower development, while Water Conservancy and Hydropower Facilities pattern could realize the sustainable development of hydropower in many years.Since these special and complex patterns face many intricate practical problems, some items of management are analyzed and studied preliminarily, such as macro project management and micro project management, projects group management, project management of finance and, management after project etc. The purpose to study them is in order to improve the efficiency and profit in macro and micro sides and then boost the developing level of the whole society.The innovation of the essay is PROT, FEPCO, Water Rights for Power Generating (WRPG), and Charters for Water Conservancy and Hydropower Facilities (CWCHF) patterns and the integration coordinate method in projects group management. Limited by many conditions, these innovations are only in initiative stage and further studies are still awaited. |
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