Research On Scale Calculation And Driving Factors Of Pollution Of China’s Service Sectors Under The Prospective Of Final Demand

The fact that China becomes the largest polluter of SO2&NOXin the world hasraised public concern to environmental pollution caused by economic growth. In theChina’s12thFive-Year Plan for Environmental Protection, the emissions of sulfurdioxide, nitrogen oxides and ammonia from all sectors has been regarded as controltargets. In the other hand, the service industry is generally assumed to be "clean"industry with low or zero pollution. Therefore, the claim that reducing overallpollution by developing the service industry was quite popular. However, there israrely research on internal pollution emission service industry itself. Hence, it isessential to launch a related study on observing the dynamic trend of all serviceindustries’ pollutants emission and analyzing the driving factors behind that.Based on the background above, this article used environmental input-outputmodel to calculate sulfur oxides, nitrogen oxides and ammonia’s emission intensityand scale of service industries from1995to2009with the perspective of final demand.The results showed that three kinds of pollutants’ emission intensities declined tosome extent, while the scale of pollutants’emission increased. The leading finaldemand factor causing scale growth is consuming demand.In the next step, the paper applied structural decomposition analysis method tostudy the dynamic changes of driving factors behind the growth of service industries’pollution. The empirical results implied that economic scale effect and cleantechnology effect are the two main influence factors, while industry structure factorand intermediate input factor had opposite effect in different period. With the respectto final demand factors, the consumer demand effect is the key demand factoraffecting pollutant emission, but its influence gradually declined, the pollutiondriving mode had switched from consumption-driven to consumption-export dualdriven.