Study On Urban Air Quality Evaluation And Pollutant Concentration Prediction Based On Grey Theory

Nowadays,China's pollution is increasingly serious,in order to PM2.5 as the main form of fog is given priority to with SO2 and formation of the acid rain problem increasingly prominent,such as,affect social stability and harmony,impair the health of people body.The selection of nanchang city in jiangxi province as the research area,using fuzzy mathematics comprehensive evaluation method and grey statistical model evaluation method,two methods on the analysis of urban environmental air quality was evaluated,and adopted the GM(1,1)grey dynamic prediction model of nanchang of six major pollutant concentrations are made to the city over the next three years are analyzed based on the prediction results of environmental air quality.Because countries in January 1,2016 formally implement the new "ambient air quality standard"(GB3095-2012),joined the PM2.5,CO and O3 three main pollutants,so this article selected prior to the start of the study the current six kinds of main pollutants were studied,respectively,SO2,NO2,PM10 and PM2.5,CO and O3.Firstly,nanchang city in jiangxi province as a study area,in 2013-2017 as sample data of six major pollutants concentration,adopt single factor index method,fuzzy mathematics comprehensive evaluation method and the grey statistical model evaluation method to evaluate the nanchang city ambient air quality analysis,from the two kinds of evaluation methods of the evaluation results analysis shows that nanchang nearly five years of ambient air quality belongs to the second grade,environmental pollution situation within it is clean.But from the two methods to obtain the effective information about the analysis and evaluation of ways,grey statistical model evaluation will than fuzzy mathematics comprehensive evaluation method to get the information more effectively,it can see various pollutants in the year of the weight of the ratio between each grade and the weight ratio of the change trend of each year,more conducive to analysis various pollutants in the pollution situation and the change trend of each year,so the grey model in atmosphere environmental quality assessment will be more suitable than other models.Then paper using GM(1,1)grey dynamic prediction model based on 2013-2017,six kinds of pollutants concentration monitoring value respectively of six major pollutants of nanchang concentration forecast for the next three years,the forecast model accuracy assessment,assessment results show that the precision of six kinds of prediction model of pollutants are above 99% accuracy,that the GM(1,1)grey dynamic prediction model predicted by the nanchang city over the next three years of the credibility of density is very high,so the grey prediction model is suitable for the concentration of the urban environment air quality prediction research.