Effects Research About Runoff Of Kaidu River By Climate Change And Human Activities

Kaidu is one of the famous inland rivers and an important supply source of Bosten Lake at the same time, Kaidu River not only plays a very important role in the maintenance of local economic development and ecological balance, but also bears task to water lower Tarim River. Runoff changes of Kaidu will have a significant impact on the development of agriculture, animal husbandry and ecological environment in the surrounding area. Over the past few decades, under the combined effect of regional climate change and human activities, many changes have occurred in the river climate. In this paper, nearly 53 years, we Use annual runoff of midstream Dashankou station and downstream Yanqi station, six stations average annual rainfall of mountain and plain area basin, the annual average temperature and other data and population, irrigated area, irrigation consumption water and some human factors data, using statistical theory and methods of correlation analysis and nonparametric Mann-Kendall mutation testing and other research methods, reveals large Yamaguchi station and Yanqi Basin station runoff and climate factors(precipitation, temperature) time series variation and trends; then analyze the Kaidu River runoff effective irrigation area, irrigation water consumption, arable land, population, the amount of irrigated water and other human activities; and finally to calculate and analyze the human elements and weather Elements of Dashankou station runoff and runoff Yanqi station change weights by gray correlation analysis method, evaluate their impact and comparative analysis. Results of quantitative and qualitative analysis are as follows:Nearly 53 years, Kaidu River Dashankou stations showed an increasing trend of annual runoff, variation was 0.1892(m3 / s) / 10 a. During 1960 to 2012, Kaidu River Dashankou station caliber process flow changes can be divided into four stages. During 1960 to 1971, showing an increase after the first decrease trend. During 1972 to 1986, the average annual runoff variation fluctuated decreasing trend. During 1987 to 2002, the Dashankou station caliber flow fluctuated increase. During 2002 to 2012, showing an increase after the first runoff decreasing trend and the trend is raising twice mutation which occurred in 1995 and 1997.Annual runoff of Kaidu River Yanqi station generally showed a decreasing trend. During 1960 to 2012, runoff process changes of Kaidu River Yanqi station can be divided into three stages. 1960-1974, the presented wave decreasing trend, reducing runoff 1.405 billion m3. 1975 to 2002, showing an increasing trend wave. During 2003 to 2012, generally showed a decreasing trend. Kaidu Yanqi station annual runoff there was a mutation in 1993, the average annual runoff after 2003 continued to decline.By analyzing temperature and precipitation trends and that mutation test of Kaidu River Basin six stations, we got that, each station has emerged as the rise in temperature and precipitation trends, but the annual average temperature rise is more significant over-year average precipitation. Summary, all six stations of Kaidu River Basin average precipitation and temperature has mutations occur; the average annual precipitation of Yanqi station did not have mutations, while the annual average temperature is mutated. Average precipitation and temperature of Hejing station are mutated. Temperatures and average precipitation Heshuo station are not mutated. The average annual temperature of Bayinbuluke station did not have mutations, while the average annual precipitation is mutated. Dashankou station and Barron stations average annual temperature and precipitation are mutated. The average annual precipitation stations mutation occurred during 1981 to 1986 and from 2008 to 2009; the annual average temperature is occurred in about 1981 to 1989 and from 1996 to 1997.During 1960- 2012, the impact of human activities and natural factors on the runoff exhibit different gray associated weights at different times. The overall trend is still dominated by natural factors due to human activities short time, the trend in the future is that the human factor will dominate. 1, for Dashankou station runoff in 1960- 1971, the influence of natural factors on the runoff is maximum; during 1972- 1986 period, natural factors on the changes of runoff plays a dominant role, the impact of human activities less. During 1987 – 2003, the impact of human activity on the runoff began to increase. In the 2003- 2012 periods, with the increasingly frequent human activities, the human factor has become the dominant factor of change on runoff, while the influence of natural factors on the runoff showed weakening trend.For the runof of Yanqi station, during the 1960- 1974 periods, the impact of natural factors on the runoff is maximum. During 1975-2002, Effect of runoff began to increase, during 2003- 2012; the human factor has become a major factor in runoff change. Human activity and climate change on different time of Dashankou station runoff and runoff Yanqi station showing different gray associated weights, which were compared, Yanqi station had a high correlation with human activities affected by human activities stronger than Dashankou station. And human impact of Yanqi station runoff happened earlier than Dashankou.