Effects Of Climate Change And Human Activities On Land Use Change In The Kaikong River Basin,China

Global change is an indisputable fact.The study of regional response to global change is one of the major scientific issues in global change research,and land use change and its driving forces are one of the key study issues of it.This paper take Kaikong River Basin(namely Kaidu River-Kongque River)as the research target area,which on the southern slope of the Middle Tianshan Mountain and the northern margin of the Tarim Basin,using Mann-Kendall non-parametric trend analysis,Mann-Kendall mutation test,land transfer matrix,correlation analysis,principal component analysis and other statistical methods to analyze the characteristics of regional climate change,human activities and land use change,combined with the climate change and human activities to summarize the reason of land use change.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)The temperature and precipitation in the Kaikong River Basin showed a significant upward trend from 1961 to 2010.The rising trend of temperature was particularly significant in winter,and the increasing trend of precipitation was mainly reflected in the increase of summer rainfall.(2)Population,social and economic activities,and agricultural inputs of the Kaikong River Basin showed a significant upward trend from 1995 to 2015.(3)The overall trend of land use change in Kaikong River Basin shows that:during1980-2015,the change of forest land,water area and unused land is not obvious,the most obvious change is cultivated land and construction land,with the area ratio increased from 2.79%and 0.14%to 4.47%and 0.34%.From the perspective of land use change types,in the past 35 years,the land area of cultivated,forest,water and construction in Kaikong River Basin showed an increasing trend,while the grassland area and unused land area showed a decreasing trend.Among them,the area of cultivated land increased the fastest in 2010-2015,the rate was as high as 172.39 km~2/a;the area of forest land showed a significant increase trend from 2000 to 2005,and the rate reached 61.05 km~2/a;the area of water increased most from 1995 to 2000,with a rate of 16.29 km~2/a;the construction land increased the fastest from 2010 to 2015,with a rate of 19.47km2/a.(4)The analysis of land use transfer direction shows that in the past 35 years from1980 to 2015,the amount of cultivated land transformed into forest land and grassland(natural vegetation)in Kaikong River Basin is less than that of forest land and grassland transformed into cultivated land,while the area of unused land transformed into cultivated land is much larger than that of cultivated land transformed into unused land,and the increasing area of construction land is mainly transformed from unused land.(5)The analysis results of oasis land use change show that the“expansion”contribution rate of oasis area in Kaikong River Basin during 1980-2015 mainly comes from cultivated land and construction land,followed by water area;and the“atrophy”contribution rate of the oasis area mainly from forest land,followed by grassland.(6)The main driving force for land use change in the Kaikong River Basin is human activity.