The Influence Of Climate Change And Human Activities On Runoff Of The Kai Du River Source Region

With the acceleration of industrialization level, human activities on the atmosphere intensified, and the atmosphere activity has an important influence on the formation of precipitation and runoff. Arid areas as sensitive zone of climate change, it’s issues must be taken seriously enough. Therefore, it is important to quantitative analyze climate change and human activities contribution rate on runoff, provide a reference to a reasonable allocation of water resources.In recent years, SWAT distributed hydrological model increasingly favored by research workers. Used primarily for runoff forecasting, simulation of contaminant transport and sediment content. In this paper, SWAT model was been used to simulate kaidu river source region. By collecting DEM, LUCC, soil type maps, runoff, weather, site information and other data, using ARCGIS, DPS, EXCEL, Photoshop and other tools divide kaidu river basin into 49 sub-basins, 406 HRU, simulated the monthly runoff of watershed. While the process of parameter calibration, year 1960 to 1997 was divided into two sections: from 1960 to 1980(calibration period), from 1980 to 1996(validation period). SWAT-CUP was used to tune the model parameters, then the parameter adjustment results were brought into model. Get R2, NS, RD in calibration period is 0.6235,0.5225 and-3.4337%,took this parameter into validation period,get R2, NS, RD is 0.7731,0.6279 and-5.367% respectively. Indicate simulation results can meet the demand of paper.By M-K test, get mutation point of runoff(1997). Do simulation of runoff and calibration of parameters before year 1997. Use calibrated parameters simulate runoff between year1997 ~ 2010. Climate and human activities contribution rate on runoff been calculated. Meanwhile,by using hyperbolic accumulation method,this two contribution rate been separately divided and analyzed.In this paper, two conclusions:(1) Using SWAT model, runoff of the river source area are simulated. And by SWAT-CUP, parameters of the model were calibrated. R2, NS, RD values of the model are in line with the requirements, indicate model fit the study area runoff simulation well.(2) By MK test method the Kaidu Runoff found occurred an increased mutation in 1997. Using SWAT model and hyperbolic accumulation method, climate change and human activities contribution rates to river runoff were separated. Result shows that contribution rate of human activities based on SWAT model is 23.62%, of climate change is 76.38%. Based on hyperbolic accumulation rule are 15.4% and 84.6% separately. These two methods are similar in results, with significant reference meaning.