Dynamic Simulation And Prediction Of Land Use And Landscape Pattern Based On CA-markov Model In Baise Youjiang River Valley

With the high-speed Urbanization of baise city,the land-use had changed significantlyin baise youjiang river valley,which also led to significant changs in landscape patter. Thischange was bound to give the community economic and ecology a certain impact.Thus,timely and accurately grasping the status and dynamic changes of landscape patternon the area and simulated its change trend was very important for drafting scientific andrational development plan and achieving sustainable development.This paper used a typical area of rapid urbanization-baise youjiang river valley forthe study,by using GIS,RS and the theories and methodologies of landscape ecology,the2000,2005and2010landsite TM remote sensing images of Baise youjiang river valleywere interpreted,and obtained three distributions of landscape pattern;then,systematic andcomprehensive analyses were conducted on the land use change,characteristics andevolution of landscape spatial pattern during2000-2010,then the influencing factors oflandscape pattern changes are discussed in four aspects from nature,economy,society andpolicy.on this basis,by using CA-Markov Model,it would simulate the change fromregional land use and landscape pattern,by above analyses,we can mainly reach thefollowing conclusion.(1) In the period from2000to2010,great change had taken place in the pattern ofland use in baise youjiang river valley and the syatem of land use developed in the ordereddirection.presenting the as a whole,which are the inceasing of the area of the constructionland,woolland,water and unused land and the decreasing of the area of cultivated land andgrassland.(2) The landscape pattern of baise youjiang river valley changes significantly between2000and2010.the overall landscape pattern went to the diversification,and the degree oflandscape fragmentation gradually deepened;the patch shape became more complex,andthe area of different types of patches tended to be uneven,and the advantages patches of thecultivated land and the construction land landscape types had an obvious effect.the area ofthe construction,woolland,water and unused land increased significantly, the area of thecultivated land and grassland dropped greatly.(3) The analysis about the influence factors of the landscape pattern shows that the nutural factors such as the slope,distance from the administrative center and transportroutes have a great impact on the change of landscape pattern;and the planning factors,delimitation of land for Control Area of the Construction Land and land use zome for thecapital farmland protection,will limit the development of the construction land andStrengthening the cultivated land protection.In this paper the qualitative and quantitativeanalysis of these factors are carried on,which will provide the conversion rules for thesimulation of the future landscape pattern of baise youjiang river valley.(4) Using the CA-Markov model to simulate the landscape pattern of the study area in2010and comparing tha simulation results with the actual landscape pattern chart,theAccuracy test of number and space simulation are up to85%,which indicates that themodel is fine and confident.after the Accuracy test, the landscape pattern in2020issimulated.The results shows that in the period from2010to2020,the change of thelandscape pattern in baise youjiang river valley is obvious:the area of woolland andgrassland is decreases,and the cultivated land, construction land, water and unused landlandscape increase;the landscape fragmentation goes in a deeper lenel,and the number ofpatches increases,and the landscape diversity has an upward trend,which means that theimpact of human activity on the landscape pattern of baise youjiang river valley areacontinues to deepen.