A Research Of The Forming Mechanism And Countermeasures To Real Estate Bubbles

Real estate bubbles often occur during the period of business prosperity of a country. At first, the price of real estate increases very fast and the bubbles of real estate form. But when the prices reach the culmination, the demands fall quickly and the price drops sharply, then the bubbles burst. Real estate bubbles may result in bubble economy. Once the bubbles burst, the impact on the economy of a country or a region would be severe. In recent years, the real estate industry of China grows at a very high speed and the price of real estate also goes up quickly. Many economists begin to focus on the problem of whether real estate bubbles existing in China. Therefore, researching the forming mechanism of real estate bubbles and finding the countermeasures to real estate bubbles are significant to keep prosperous development of our economy.In the first chapter, the author tries to discuss the meaning of real estate bubbles. The author thinks the real estate bubbles are the phenomena caused by real estate speculations that real estate price deviates from its basic market value and goes up continually. On the basis of discussing the meaning and internal relation of economy bubbles and real estate bubbles, the author probes into the relationship of real estate bubbles and over-building and economy cycle of real estate. The author also analyzeg the affection of real estate bubbles on economy.In the second chapter, the author focuses on the forming mechanism of real estate bubbles. Due to scarcity of land, the price of land, as the most important part of real estate price is tending to go up continually. This is the internal impetus of real estate bubbles. The main reasons causing real estate bubbles are virtual character ofland, expectations, speculations, irrational actions and the free finance system etc..This paper deeply analyzes the situation and cause of real estate bubbles of China in the third chapter. The author describes the situation of real estate industry in China and then chooses three indicating indices of real estate bubbles to begin his research. By calculating the compositive coefficient of real estate bubbles, the author verifies the countrywide level and regional level of real estate bubbles and draws the conclusion that there is no real estate bubbles in countrywide level but in regional level, real estate bubbles do exist. On the basis of analysis above, by analyzing the real estate bubbles taking place in Hanna province and Beihai city in history and shanghai city recently, the author thinks in a country like china where imperfect market system and government control exists, speculations, expectations, irrational actions and virtual capital characteristic of land are not the only reasons causing real estate bubble. The author thinks, in china, the direct reason causing real estate bubbles is market factor such as the speculations of real estate bubbles, but the deep-seated reason is the non-market factors such as the inefficiency of government control and system limitation of land.In chapter 4, the author discusses the forecast system and the countermeasures to real estate bubbles. The author thinks it is advisable to choose suitable indices to analyzing and judging the situation of real estate bubbles on the basis of forecast system of real estate. The forecast system of real estate bubbles should be carried out mainly in city associating with the national forecast system. The countermeasures to real estate bubbles include perfecting the land market, reforming the tax system of real estate, supervising disclosure of information, standardizing government's intervention behavior to the real estate market, etc..