The Empirical Research On Qingdao's Real Estate Bubbles And Banking Risk

Chinese real estate industry has come into a new stage of continuous development, since 1998, when the Chinese housing system is coming into progress, especially along with the end of the welfare allocating houses, and the beginning of the housing commercialization. In the mean time, the price of the real estate has rapidly risen up. However, as the real estate possesses a little higher production inducing coefficient and the larger amount of operating funds, the national economy, especially the banking system, has been further influenced. Confronting with the increasing price of the real estate, whether there exist bubbles has attracted hot attention from various levels of society. Focusing on the inherent correlating system between the real estate bubbles and the banking risk, this thesis, given Qingdao the concrete research background, will make a further study of the formation of the real estate bubbles, the influence and the impairment upon banking through the theoretical research and the empirical analysis. And hope that this thesis can reveal the peculiar characteristic and the inherent system and provide the macro-economic control with some valuable scientific foundation.This thesis starts with the related theory about real estate bubbles, and analyzes the formation principle and the pervading effect, then comes to the conclusion that the real estate bubbles can be driven by the particularity of the real estate, the make-up of the ground price, the affinity between the real estate and banking industry, the psychological expectation of the public, the speculation and imitating behavior. Meanwhile, this thesis depicts that due to the increase of the public expectation towards the real estate price in the process of the formation of the bubbles, a crowd of enterprises and individual pour into the estate market by using amounts of loans to speculate in the real estate market and boost the price of estate to a high level, especially some large-scale investors make the estates as mortgages which are already in possession and will be in possession. The above phenomenon by turn makes the price of estate deviate from the basic value at a faster speed. While it was formed, the bubble will strengthen itself by a series of positive and negative system.Secondly, at the basis of explaining the existing vulnerability of the banking system, the thesis discussed the correlation between the real estate bubbles and banking risk through the passing effect analysis, and points out that the banking loan is to be spread on the basis of the real estate prices, and when the market price over-deflects the basic value, the bubbles was transferred to banking, so the burst of bubbles will exert a great influence upon the banking system. The practice of the world indicates that the burst of the real estate is calamitous and will last for a long time. For example, from the 80periods to 90 periods in the last century, the banking crisis lead by the burst of Japanese real estate bubble and in 90 periods in the last century, financial crisis lead by the burst of Thailand estate bubbles, the consequencesof which has not been diminished completely yet up to now.On the basis of the above theory research, this thesis has made an empirical research upon the bubble and banking risk. Through the production, trade, consumption and the appraisal indexes, this thesis makes out the statistics and concluded that there already exists the bubble in the Qingdao real estate market. And if the macro-economic policy will not be changed in a drastic way, the bubble will not burst itself in the short time, and the price of the real estate will get the chance to go upwards. And then this thesis analyses the financing structure, the qualification of the construction enterprises and the development of the banking personal housing mortgage load business, and make a conclusion that the high speed of the real estate of Qingdao in recent years is deeply dependent on the support of bank. The bank, at one side, spread the loan to the construction dealer, and at another side, give the purchaser mortgages, and most of the dealers and purchasers put their loan into the estate market and push the estate price to the high level. Then, thesis reflects that the bubble of real estate has brought the high potential risk to the banking and if the bubble burst, the bank will generate large amounts of bad debts. In the end, this thesis analyzes the formation of the real estate bubble from the different points of views: macro-economy and regional background. And brings forward the policy and suggestion against the bubble, preventing the banking risk and boosting the real estate develop healthy.