A Brief Analysis On Chinese Real Estate Bubble And Financial Risk

Real estate industry is an important dominant industry in China, which has tremendous contribution to the national economy. In recent years, the real estate markets in some areas of east coast were lasting prosperity, the price of real estate rose unceasingly, as arouses people's universal attention, the voice of serious bubble that appears in the market is gradually strengthen. While the recent research mostly extrapolates and estimates that the real estate market whether has bubble just from the superficial phenomena of real estate industry, which lacks theory depth.Taking this into consideration, on the basis of the research about real estate bubble in the home and abroad, using the theoretical analysis and the empirical analysis methods, starting with the connotations and the characteristics of real estate bubble, this dissertation researches into the formational elements of real estate bubble from modern economic point of view; analyzes the relations between the real estate bubble and financial risk, and takes the price of real estate and the bank credit supplies data of our country in recent years as the basis, conducts empirical research to the relationship of the price of Chinese real estate undulation and the financial support; and carries on an investigation into the current real estate market development conditions according to some correlation economic indicators of real estate bubble, draws the basic conclusion that our real estate market as a whole does not have the universal high bubble, but the partial city real estate markets do have serious bubble. Then some policies and suggestions are pertinently brought forward to keep real estate bubble from causing financial risk.This dissertation is divided into four parts:The first part takes the correlative real estate bubble theories as the basis, primarily makes a simple introduction to the connotations of bubble,bubble economy and real estate bubble, then analyzes the formation mechanism and the concrete causes of real estate bubble and the possible financial risks.The second part analyzes the intrinsic relations between real estate industry and financial industry. At the basis of explaining the existing vulnerability of the banking system, the dissertation discusses the correlation between real estate bubble and banking risk through the passing effect analysis, combining the concrete cases about the Japanese financial crisis on last century's end and the Thai real estate bubble.On the basis of the above theory research, the third part carries on the empirical...