Study On Temporal Behavior And Attenuation Prediction Of Radio Wave Propagation In Ionosphere

Based on the theory of wave propagation in random media, ionospheric effects on radio wave propagation and the feasibility of short-term forecasting of fading signals in ionosphere are examined. Firstly, the ionosphere plasma parameters in Zhongshan Station Area of Antarctica sky are obtained with the international reference ionosphere IRI2001 model, the statistical temporal characteristics of pulse signal propagation through the turbulent ionosphere are investigated theoretically and numerically with the data by using temporal moment method and the analytic solution to the two-frequency and two-position mutual coherence function. The temporal characteristics which include mean arrival time, pulse broadening, skewness and kurtosis, as well as their changing with the characteristic parameters of the ionospheric irregularities are all analyzed. Secondly, based on the traditional prediction method of chaotic time series, a nonlinear prediction method which fitts for fading signals time series is presented, and this method is used to predict radio wave fading time series with satisfactory results. Finally, the traditional linear autoregressive prediction technology is used to predict radio wave fading time series, and the comparison of the advantages and disadvantages of above two methods is given and discussed.