Teletraffic Analysis And Forecasting Research And System Realisation

Carrier resource is operator's most valuable resource. With the bursting growth of mobile phone user number and traffic need, the operators are facing problems more than limited carrier resource. The problems not only include limited capacity of base station, but also the difficulties of expanding the number of base station, and even facing the decreasing of base station. How to offer more service base on limited carrier and base stations and other physical resources, maintain the quality of service has become an important subject for the mobile network. The accuracy of results of forecasting directly affects companys quality of service. But in daily operation of telecommunication network, traffic's forecasting is still at a relevantly less developing stage.Mainly, forecasting is based on historical data and experience guiding drawing Traffic trends. The prediction methods decide the resulty of prediction; the choice of method of forecasting is the core and difficult job.This paper aims at the research of the character of traffic in mobile networks under different situation or time, also to establish a scientific and reasonable traffic model, and make prediction of future traffic using combined methods. The study of traffic includes cycle analysis, trend analysis of time series, the model of daily traffic, traffic model of holidays and other special days. After forecasting part, certain performance indexes of prediction will be used accordingly to judge the merits and quality of the algorithms. Telecommunications operators may grasp the real-time user behavior, traffic trend of development and carry out rational decision-making and investment.