Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process And Its Application In Risk Assessment System For High Speed Craft Navigation

With the continuous economic growth of China's coastal area, the need of marine transportation is increasing rapidly. The fast development of high-speed craft market of Hangzhou Gulf in recent years has attracted attentions from people both inside and outside the circle, and great expectations were put on it.However, due to the limitation of natural resource, rising density of navigating ships and management problems, risks of marine traffic increase and marine traffic accidents occurs from time to time. The heavy investment, speed fast and passenger transportation characteristics of high speed craft put it on higher risks than other ships, making it necessary to study the issues concerning the safe navigation of high speed craft.The topic of this paper is one of the two sub-topics of Research on Modeling and Software Emulation of High Speed Craft Motion, a scientific project sponsored by the Zhejiang Communication Bureau. This research is intended to enable both navigators and administrative personnel to have an intuitional understanding of the safety status of high speed craft, to provide decision-making support of the safe navigation of high speed craft, and to provide superior technical means to ensure the safe navigation of high speed craft and exploitation of marine transportation resources in an efficient and rational way in Zhejiang province.This paper offers a brief analysis of several quantitative assessment methods by applying the basic theory and approach of safety system engineering. By adopting the Fuzzy Comprehensive Assessment Approach, Formal Safety Assessment (FSA), combined qualitative and quantitative systematic analysis approach, by investigating the characteristics of the sea area of Zhejiang province and the factors affecting the safe navigation of high speed craft, taking into account the opinions from navigators and experts, the paper establishes a risk assessment factor system for high speed craft navigation, sets the indexing assessment standard for assessment factors. The membership function for each factor is defined by adopting the General Bell Shaped Function, which is frequently used in defining membership function diagram of Fuzzy mathematics.The weight of each factor is calculated by using Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). A multi-level fuzzy comprehensive assessment mathematical model for navigation risks of high speed craft is established, a computer-aided software is also developed, namely risk assessment system for high speed craft navigation, making quantitative assessment for navigation safety of high speed craft.The system has been adopted by a number of high speed craft companies in Zhoushan, Zhejiang province, and results showed that the system quite matched the reality. The system has provided ship companies with a clear, easy and quantitative approach for safety assessment of high speed craft navigation. It also enables the administrative personnel and navigators to have an intuitional understanding of the safety status of high speed craft, and make effective and sound decisions for risk with high speed craft navigation.