The Model And Simulation Of The Brittleness Of Colliery Accident System

This paper mainly utilizes the communication entropy theory of the complex systems, brittleness theory, estimation theory of systems and statistic and probability theory to analyze the system of the coal production such that the reason of the accidents can be found and it is known that the variety for the brittleness and information entropy of the system and the dynamic process of every subsystems. At the same time, the whole processes are given that the systems of the coal production are stabilized by the policies of the government. In this paper, we build the system model of the coal production by the estimation theory of systems and the statistic and probability theory. Then, according to the information theory and brittle theory, the brittle model and the model of the information entropy for the system of the coal production are developed. These are being the effective implements to analyze the system of the coal production.The model of the information entropy for the system of the coal production can precisely describes the varieties of every subsystem of the coal production. Thus, we can quickly deal with the problems of the system of the coal production by them. At last, the paper gives a simulation based on the real data of our country in 2005. We regard a colliery as an example, and describe the simulating results. From the simulation results, we can find that the proposed approach is very effective and easily application so that we can use it to predict the accident of systems of the coal production and to deal with the problems.In the section 2 and 3, we mainly give some basic theories for the last sections. They include the brittleness theory of the complex system, information entropy theory and the estimation theory of the system. Section 4 derives the model for every subsystems of the coal production. At last, the simulation results are given in the section 5.