A Research On The Question Of Uncertainty In Management System

Uncertainty is a familiar phenomenon in the study of nature and society. The earliest research on this question is in the theory of quanta of modem physics, and then has been developed in the study of control system. However, uncertainty in management system was emphasized in the last ten years. In modem management, the work of governors is influenced by uncertainty at large degree. With the total effect of the factors of management system, a consequence is caused by many reasons while a reason results in many different consequences. Because uncertainty is resulted from the chance of object and the limitation of the capability of people, and the impersonal reason can't be changed, people improve their cognition to reduce the influence of uncertainty, and a lot of theories are put forward. Nevertheless, these theories focus on different aspects separately. A whole theory system has not yet come into being.In management system, uncertainty appears in making decisions frequently and has large influence on it Thereby this paper takes measures to analyze the uncertainty in making decisions, and use the theory of information diffusion, computer simulation and utility theory to construct a system of theory for scientific decision-making. The system can make collecting and disposing information more reasonable and scientific. At last, this paper uses the theory system in the project Research on Green Building Assessment System and draws a good conclusion. I hope this paper can contribute to drive the study of uncertainty in management system to develop at the direction of systemization.