Research On Technology Development Trend Analysis Based On Internet

With the development of network technology and the massive data, the network information has become the community can not ignore the important information resource, which not only contains a lot of information and technology related, but also subtle to guide and influence technology development. For the vast complexy information in the Internet, how to determine which information can be used to analyze and study technology trends? How to fast and accurately obtain research information from the Internet? How to use the network information to analyze technology development trend? These are purpose of this thesis.This thesis is divided into two parts---framework research and empirical research. In the part of framework research, firstly, based on the current status of research in this field, we define the Internet information that studyed, namely web text, web links, web domain name and the number of web pages, expanding the sources of objective data in this area. Secondly, we define the field of technology development trend, and it includes the technology focus, technology maturity and technology development. Finally, we innovatively put forward the feasible study framework of technology development trend based on Internet, and it includes keyword selection, downloading web information and analysis network data model and interpretation. In the research framework, the analysis model and explaination is the core of this thesis. This section contain three parts, namely for technological focus using hierarchical clusteringy to analyze national top-level domain name; for technology readiness levels, using hype cycle to analyze the number of web pages, and using co-occurrence analysis to analyze keywords in web pages; for technology development direction, using social networking visual analysis to analyze the links between websites. In the part of empirical research, we empirical study the three models in research framework, and those demonstrate feasibility and realizability of using Internet information to analyze and study technology development trend.Reseaching technology development trend based on Internet, broaden sources of objective data and analysis methods. We can obtain quickly and accurately information that influence technology development, especially for the new technologies that absent historical data, rapidly obtain technological innovation. It is very important that whether it is to improve the competitiveness of enterprises or to develop decision support technology development policies.