The Study Of Applying The Delphi Method To The Public Archives Value Identification

The value of the public archives is muti-dimensional,relative and potential,which require a multi-level nature of participant, a diversity of value standars,and a predictive method. What it requiers is to predict the facilitative value aculatly.There are problems of the current organization model,the participants and the value standards,which cause the quantity and quality of the collection in the hall. Using the Delphi method in the public archives intentification when they entering the archives can solve the problem .The Delphi method is a method that having some anonymouse experts set opinion all alone on the archival value, then building an greement after sever rounds of consultions and feedback.Regardless of the analysis from the characteristics of predictability of the archival value identified, or the predictive method it requires, the Delphi method is appropriate to identify public archives into the hall. Using the Delphi method to identify public archives into the hall can make up the current shortage of the organization, meet the requirements of identification to the participants,avoid the limit of the dertermining of the archives retention, and solve the overload problem of the public archives at last.Experts have more initiatives when using the open Delphi method to foacast the arvhival value. In theory, it should be use open the Delphi method in the public archives identification, it can take half-open Delphi method because of Delphi's long time last and heavy workload characteristics.