Agent-Based Evaluating And Forecasting Support System On The Urban Competitiveness Of KunShan

KunShan has gained great progress in economy and the study on the appraisal and forecasting of the urban competitiveness of KunShan will conduce to the deeper understanding of the reason why KunShan has developed so rapidly, and to the deeper and more comprehensive appraisal of the actuality and future of KunShan, which is of practical meaning.The article mainly introduces the design, realization and appraisal and forecasting results of the Agent-Based Appraisal and Forecasting Support System on the urban competitiveness of KunShan. Guided by the the index system of urban competitiveness, the support system aims at the indexes in the various layers of the index system. And on the basis of that, the adventages and disadvantages of KunShan are pointed and feasible proposals are forwarded. The design of the system is based on the combination of the quantitative and qualitative thoughts and the idea of systhesis. In the system, various forecasting models are designed into the forecasting agents and various combining models into the combining agents to combine the forecasting results of forecasting results. The system proved to be useful and the results are satisfying.The index system used by the system is created on the basis of the combination of the former production and the uniqueness of KunShan. The index system consists of four layers, which are the collecvitity layer, the system layer, the status layer and the variable layer. The power of the index system is determined by the main component analysis method and the experience of related experts.The article gives the intuitionistic appraisal and forecasting results on the competitiveness of KunShan and contributes to the appraisal and forecasting of KunShan.