Research And Implementation Of Prognostic Model In Data Mining

The feature of Data Mining technique mining valuable knowledge from abundant data is applied to Management Information System and offers basis to decision maker for making the next task plan. Through this way,MIS becomes the system that possesses function of decision support. Prognostic analysis takes an importation part in MIS,and prognostic model plays a critical role in data mining.Generally speaking,classification based on decision tree or neural network and prediction based on regression model are used widely. But they are not usually satisfied with the need of practical problem. Decision tree is often applied for predicting the class label of data objects and regression model is usually applied in the course of linear problem. With the constantly expanding applied field of data mining,new models and arithmetic continually appear and are used for analyzing and solving problem as the complementarities of old and mature models and arithmetic. This article brings forward a new prognostic model,which is based on N_rank transfer probability coming from the theory of random process and restricted by minimum confidence and adjustment matrix. Using this model,ultimately prognostic result can be found.With the background of developing of choosing courses subsystem in educational administration management information system,the author unites the above theory and practice. The model utilizes bypast choosing courses data storing in database to forecast the future trend of choosing courses. Distilling effective data from dbselect database and building data mining database;According to the idea of prognostication,computing data in order to satisfy the need of prognostication and using minconf to judge,finally getting the result. Because of the objective factor,the result must be adjust by adjustment matrix. According to prognostic result,it is possible that courses are arranged in reason in the course of editing teaching plan and eventually students can be satisfied with the result. The application of data mining in choosing courses has more practical meaning without question. It guarantees students having more chance to deriveknowledge and expand culture in all kinds of fields.