| ObjectiveIn order to provide a scientific basis for working out the development plan of the health human resources(HHR) rationally and for further promoting the development of local health services, this study grasp the basic situation (total and composition) of the health professionals in sample areas through the investigations on the health status of the health staff from the areas of different economic levels, and then, this study analyses the problems and the shortages of the distribution of HHR, and it makes future forecast for the health technicians in the target years(Year 2010 and 2015) by seting up the prediting model.MethodsThis study divides the 18 provincial-level cities of Henan province into developed areas, moderately developed areas and the underdeveloped regions according to the per capita GDP ranking of the province-level cities of Henan Province in 2008, and then, it randomly and respectively select one city from the three type of areas at different economic levels to discuss problems of the structure and the distribution of the health technicians by means of analysing their quantities and the structure in the sample citis. Meanwhile, based on the researching data of year 1996-2005, the study makes an explorative prediction on the quantities of the health technicians in 2008, and gives a future forecast for the health technicians for target years by establishing the best forecasting models to provide policy advice for the rational planning of HHR.ResultsLuoyang, Anyang and Zhoukou City were surveyed as the sample areas. For health professions, there were 30902 people in Luoyang,20965 in Anyang and 30222 in Zhoukou. It was relatively abundant in the aggregate, and the people per 1000 persons were higher than in Henan province and the national average. While for Anyang city and Zhoukou, it was relatively dry and hadn't yet reached the average level of Henan Province. For each area, health professions of highly educated, high-titles were fewer. On the opposite, the people of low education, low professional ranks and titles were richer. And there were still some non-professional education persons in medical and health personnel; Analysis of factors influencing distribution of health technical personnel showed that total health expenditure and economical level were main factors influencing distribution of health technical personnel. The results from explorative model showed that the grey model has the supreme accuracy. Based on the data of Year 2006 to 2008, the study forecasted the quantities of the health technicians of Luoyang, Anyang and Zhoukou in the target year, and the results showed:31991,35267; 22539,28121 and 32357,39718.ConclusionsThe total amounts of local health technicians are inadequate, and it shows that the economic level is lower, the lack of health technicians is more serious; the structure of the health technicians is irrational which proved by the phenomenon that highly educated and high professional titles are few, and low educated, low-titles are of quite a large numbers, while there are many non-academic, non-title persons engaging in health service. Therefore, the plan of HHR "total amount control, structural adjustment" should be carried ou by all localities. At the same time, the personnel training efforts should be made to rationalize the distribution of HHR to lay the foundation for the development of local health undertakings.To predict health technicians of 2010 and 2015 year in Luoyang, anyang and zhoukou, he results showed:31991,35267; 22539,28121 and 32357,39718, compare with the year of 2008, the number add by 1089,4365; 1574,7156 and 2132,9496.
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