The Study On The Status And Forecast Of The Health Manpower Of Medical Institutions In Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region

Objective:To analyze the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region medical status of human resources for health, health human resources to identify problems, while health personnel, medical institutions of the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region to the target year forecast of Xinjiang medical institutions for the health workforce forecasting.Methods:A descriptive epidemiological analysis of Xinjiang human resources for health care institutions and structure analysis of the distribution, while Xinjiang 2005-2009 human resources for health care organizations were analyzed dynamic changes; by density index and gray system GM (1,1) model of medical institutions in Xinjiang in 2015 to forecast human resources for health.Results:The results of the end of 2009, Xinjiang various medical institutions at all levels of health personnel in the post a total of 108,998 people,91,649 health workers, management personnel and workers handling skills to staff who were 3604 and 8963; 2009 share resources for health personnel per thousand population the amount is more Karamay, Urumqi, Hami Area Autonomous Prefecture and, possession of less resources are Aksu, Kashi, Hetian region and the lli Kazak Autonomous Prefecture; Xinjiang, the composition of health workers in primary titles and intermediate grade-based, accounting for 51.84% and 23.03%; education to a large, secondary education level; density index forecast results show that in 2015, the total number of Xinjiang health personnel who will reach 132,631,111,582 health professionals who Certified (Assistant), MD 42930, registered nurses,37,720 people; using gray system GM (1,1) model prediction results showed that in 2015, the total number of health personnel in Xinjiang will reach 135,035, including 114,082 health workers, management personnel 4244 people,9442 workers who were handling skills.Conclusion:Xinjiang medical institutions and the distribution of health human resource structure is irrational. Mainly in:health workforce in South has less than Northern, Northeastern; primary health care institutions and academic titles of health professionals is low; community health services too few human resources for health and so on. Density index and gray system GM (1,1) model Xinjiang human resources for health care organizations better prediction, the proposed features with the vast, sparsely populated areas of joint use of both methods of human resources for health care institutions for short-term forecast.