| Objective: To find out the status and problems of the health manpower resources (HMR)allocation in Changzhou city by investigation. Try to establish the feasible forecasting model of HMR, and use it to forecast the number of the future health personnel (HP) in Changzhou in 2008, 2010, 2015, which is to provide scientific evidences and suggestions on the HMR plan for policy-makers.Method: Using the self-design HMR questionnaire to survey the status of HMR inChangzhou. The descriptive study of epidemiology was used in analyzing proportion of the specialty, age, education, and technical post of HP; the dynamic trends of the HP for its development and utilization rate in 1992-2001. the demands of HP were estimated and predicted by 4 statistical models which are ARIMA, Grey model(1:1), multiple regression model and weight average combination model.Result: The data showed that in 2004, there were totally 19546 health personnelincluding 15707 health technological personnel (HTP, 80.4%) in Changzhou city. The number of HTP, doctors and nurses per 1000 persons on average were 4.5, 1.89 and 1.6 respectively. The ratio for doctor and nurse was 1:0.85. 80% HTP are working in medical facilities, The proportions of the HTP for community clinics and disease prevention were 2.1%, 2.5% respectively. The proportion of graduate students was 1% and they mainly served in the third-rank hospitals or CDC institution of highest-rank. In country, the medical education level and technical rank of medical personnel were both lower, there were 67% HTP under junior-college and 70% HTP were only titled junior post rank. In 2004 the average person-time doctor treat a day is 9.2, and the average hospital- bed-day doctor burdens a day is 0.9. The two indexes were decrease 30%, 57% respectively from 1993 to 2004. Using ARIMA the number of HTP in Changzhou in 2008, 2010 and 2015 were expected to be 18765, 19406, 21011 respectively. Using Grey model (1:1) the results...
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