Time-series Analysis Of Air Pollution And Health Effect Of The Residents In Lanzhou

Objectives:1.To analyze the concentration variation of the PM10, SO2, NO2 in Lanzhou from 2004 to 2007, as to understand the level of air pollution in Lanzhou.2. To analyze quantitatively the acute effect of serious the air pollution on cardiovascular diseases hospitalization and daily mortality in Lanzhou. Method:1. Metorological data and air pollution data were collected from Metorological Bureau and Environmental Monitoring net respectively. Person correlation of weather conditions and air pollution concentrations were analyzed in Lanzhou.2. Cardiovascular diseases hospitalization data and daily mortality data were collected. Using a semi-parametric generalized additive model and controlling for long-term temporal trends, days of week and meteorological factors with smoothing spline smoothers, counts of hospitalization for cardiovascular disease and daily death of residents were analyzed with PM10, SO2 and NO2 in a Poisson regression. Based on the principle of AIC, the introduction of variable was introduced and freedom value of the smoothing spline function was made, at the same time lag effect were studied. Result:1.The daily average concentration of PM10, SO2, NO2 were 0.138mg/m3, 0.056mg/m3,0.047mg/m3 respectively during January 1st,2004 and December 31th, 2007 in Lanzhou. They were accord with National secondary standards. The average concentration of PM10 were 0.143mg/m3,0.120mg/m3,0.153mg/m3,0.133mg/m3 respectively. The daily average concentration of PM10, SO2, NO2 were higher in winter and lower in summer. During the study period the average concentrations of atmospheric NO2, PM10 and SO2 had a strong positive correlation; the average concentration of SO2 and average temperature had a strong negative correlation.2. There was a lag effect of air pollutants on cardiovascular disease and daily death in Lanzhou. Different pollutants had different lag effect on the total cardiovascular disease, ischemic cardiovascular disease, hypertension, and the death of residents. The best lag day of PM10, SO2 and NO2 on the total hospitalization of cardiovascular disease were the 3rd day, the 3rd day, the 4th day respectively.The impact of SO2 and NO2 on ischemic cardiovascular disease were immediate; the best lag day of PM10 on ischemic cardiovascular disease was the 1st day.The best lag day of PM10, SO2 and NO2 on hypertension were:the 4th day, the 3rd day and the 2ed day respectively. The best lag day of PM10, SO2and NO2 on the death of residents were:the 2nd day, the 2nd day and the 3rd day respectively.3. An increase of 10μg/m3 of PM10, SO2 and NO2 corresponded to 0.21%,1.15% and 1.08% increase of total cardiovascular diseases hospitalization respectably. An increase of 10μug/m3 of PM10, SO2 and NO2 corresponded to 0.35%,1.5% and 2.16% increase of ischemic cardiovascular diseases hospitalization respectably. An increase of 10μg/m3 of PM10, SO2 and NO2 corresponded to 0.32%,2% and 1.32% increase of hypertension hospitalization respectably. An increase of 10μg/m 3 of PM10, SO2 and NO2 corresponded to 0.71%, 1.29% and 1.95% increase of the death of residents in Lanzhou. Conclusion:1. The daily average concentrations of PM10, SO2, NO2 were higher in winter and lower in summer.2. The air pollution has a short-term impact on human health, which can increase the number of cardiovascular disease hospitalization and the number of daily deaths of residents in Lanzhou.