Pharmacy Proportion Of Liaoning Provincial Hospitals Analysis And Forecast

Object: National total expenditure on health growing quickly has aroused the social attention widely. With health reform deeply, government has focused on controlling the expenditure. In order to satisfy the people's basic medical demand and guarantee the people's health rights and interests, government has implemented a series of health reforms to control the expenditure, but effect is not obvious. Pharmacy expenditure grows quickly is the first reason why health expenditure grows so quickly. In our country, pharmacy expenditure occupies half of total health expenditure, which is infrequent in developing countries and is higher than developed countries. According the condition of our country, whether we can reduce the pharmacy proportion to the level of developed countries and what level we can reach, is the focus of health reform. So forecasting the pharmacy proportion's changing characteristic is very important. Method: Using the pharmacy proportion data of final accounting of revenue and expenditure from year 1993 to 2003 of Liaoning provincial hospitals, analyzing medical income, pharmacy income and the composing of pharmacy income. Comparing Liaoning provincial hospitals'pharmacy proportion with average pharmacy proportion of whole city in China and pharmacy proportion of health ministry hospitals. Adopting polynomial –regresses and Gray Model to forecast pharmacy proportion in the following years. Result: From the year 1993 to 2003, pharmacy proportion of Liaoning provincial hospitals has reduced 22.19%; analysis results show that provincial hospitals'pharmacy proportion is higher than the average pharmacy proportion of whole city in China and the pharmacy proportion of health ministry hospitals at 1993, but at the year of 2002 provincial hospitals'pharmacy proportion is lower than the average pharmacy proportion of whole city in China and the pharmacy proportion of health ministry hospitals, which show that liaoning province do better on controlling pharmacy proportion than others. Polynomial –regresses curve is Y=23.571+314.119X-1-674.540 X-2+402.157 X-3, the pharmacy proportion forecast result from the year 2004 to 2010 are 45.30%,43.93%,42.71%,41.63%,40.67%,39.80% and 39.01%,it can conclude that pharmacy proportion will not always reduce, which can only reduce to 23.571%; Gray Model is X (0)( t )=71.902022 e?0 .042744t, forecast precision is eligible, the pharmacy proportion forecast result from the year 2004 to 2010 are 44.93%,43.05%,41.25%,39.52%,37.87%,36.28%,34.77%. Polynomial –regresses and gray model forecasting results are probable consistent, but gray model is better for short time forecasting than Polynomial –regresses, and Polynomial –regresses is good for long time forecasting. Conclusion: pharmacy proportion of Liaoning provincial hospitals has a lot space to reduce. Advice to reduce pharmacy proportion in the following ways: increasing medical treatment price, reducing pharmacy price, reducing the adding price rate of pharmacy, separating out-patient department from the hospital in the right time.